FED Rate Decision … Housing Starts … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
VOTERS REJECT TRUMP FAKE ELECTOR (Raw Story)
“President Donald Trump's status as a kingmaker in Republican primaries got a setback on Tuesday, as Georgia GOP voters rejected his choice for the governor's race. Businessman Rick Jackson, defeated Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who had Trump's endorsement…Jones is well known for being one of the "fake electors" in the 2020 scheme to overturn former President Joe Biden's electoral win.” Story at… 
Trump rebuked in Georgia as voters reject his fake elector for governor
My cmt: Coincidentally, I just mentioned Trump’s “Fake-Elector” scheme for the 2020 election this past Friday.
 
FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman concluded Wednesday with no change in interest rates and a nod to possible hikes ahead. The meeting also saw the removal of key language indicating a bias toward future cuts within a dramatically shorter policy statement.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026.html
 
NO EASY MONEY FROM WARSH (CNBC)
“DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone than many investors expected, underscoring his commitment to restoring price stability and signaling less appetite for easy monetary policy.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/jeffrey-gundlach-says-feds-warsh-is-not-going-to-be-the-easy-money-chairman-many-hoped-for.html
 
HOUSING STARTS (Hardware Retailing)
“The May reading from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau noted 1.18 million starts…single-family starts decreased 1.9% to an 882,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 6.7% compared to May 2025. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 40.2% to an annualized 295,000 pace and are down 14.2% compared to May 2025.” Story at…
https://hardwareretailing.com/housing-starts-drop-in-may/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 1.2% to 7420.
-VIX rose about 12% to 18.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.487% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

It's pretty clear that the issues in the market started shortly after today’s Fed meeting concluded at 2pm. The Fed stance under the new chairman Warsh may have surprised traders (and the Wall Street computers) leading to a 100 pt. loss on the S&P 500 after the Fed announcement. If this weakness does turn into something more concerning, there is strong support at the 50-dMA. The Index is only 1.6% above the 50-dMA. I suspect the 50-day will hold if the Index falls that far. I don’t think we have to worry about it yet, but the Index is 7.6% above the 200-dMA
 
Futures are up as I write this and I suspect that today’s action was a kneejerk reaction to the Fed news; I expect markets will move higher Thursday. (Of course, I have been saying that for a few days.)
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +3 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
I’ve been saying this for a while: I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign, but it is a slow signal. The improvement in daily numbers has been encouraging even though the bounce has stalled.
 
Breadth still looks good. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down, but some breadth indicators are warning: the McClellan Oscillator has turned bearish and that reactivates the Hindenburg Omen.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I have to be neutral now, but I am still expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.                                                                                                 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.