Industrial Production … NY Fed Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Forex Factory)
“The industrial production in the United States increased by 0.1% in May compared to April, according to the latest report by the Federal Reserve Board on Monday. On a yearly basis, the industrial output improved by 1.7%.” Story at… 
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1403676-us-industrial-production-up-01-in-may
 
NY FED MANUFACTURING (Rtt News)
“After posting strong growth last month, New York manufacturing activity increased modestly in the month of June, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3660298/new-york-manufacturing-index-pulls-back-sharply-in-june-but-still-indicates-growth.aspx
 
NAHB HOUSING INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“Builder confidence edged lower in June as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from May to 35 this month, marking the 26th consecutive negative reading. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 36.” Commentary and Analysis at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/15/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-june-2026
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.7% to 7554.
-VIX declined about 8% to 16.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.473% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign, but it is a slow signal. The improvement in daily numbers is encouraging.
 
Breadth improved again. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone up on the NYSE than have gone down.
 
Internals continue to improve as do indicators. News was good with the Iran conflict ending.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish and expecting indicators to turn bullish soon.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.