Dallas FED Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
WARREN BUFFET – HOW TO BALANCE THE BUDGET
"You just pass a law that says that any time there’s a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election…Now you’ve got the incentives in the right place." – Warren Buffet on CNBC
 
IRANIAN MISSILES/DRONES HIT THEIR TARGETS (WSJ)
“When the Iranian missiles and drones came for the nerve center of America’s naval operations in the Middle East, some of them hit their mark. The U.S. Navy base in Bahrain was repeatedly targeted between late February and June. Strikes that got through caused extensive damage, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of satellite imagery, social-media footage and interviews with current and former servicemembers—damage that the Pentagon hasn’t publicly acknowledged. Hit hard were the command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings, along with two satellite communications terminals.” Story at… 
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-naval-base-bahrain-e87bbca3
My cmt: It is not surprising that the US has not acknowledged the damage – don’t give your enemy free intelligence. But there are bigger concerns here. I commented earlier that “…the Trump Administration seemed to believe that air-strikes alone would topple the Islamic govenrment. That is a naïve and incompetant view.” Now it would appear that the US is not prepared for modern, drone war-fighting. We’ll catch up, but this just reminds us again that Hegseth (Secretary of War/Defense) is hopelessy out of touch. He pushed Trump into this war. It suprises me that he still has a job.
 
DALLAS FED (WFAA/ABC News)
“Texas factory production slowed down again in June, according to a report released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The Dallas Fed’s latest Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey shows that while local industrial activity is still growing, it is expanding at a below-average pace… Despite the slower growth and rising costs, broader perceptions of the economy remained fairly stable.” Story at…
https://www.wfaa.com/article/money/business/texas-factory-output-growth-slows-dallas-fed-report-reveals-new-economic-hurdles/287-155d4a61-5c20-43b9-b0cf-ba75453afc2e
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 7440.
-VIX declined about 4% to 17.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 4.378% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a Bearish sign that is also important.
 
Worrisome bear signs: The Lowry Selling-Pressure minus Buying-Pressure indicator; New-High/New-low data; the Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator (another breadth indicator based on new-highs and lows); XLU – S&P 500 spread; 5-10-20 Timer, a moving average crossover system. It appears that these indicators could improve in a hurry if some of the data improves. So far, not much movement in the 10-day moving average of indicators. We’re still waiting to see if indicators will confirm today’s price action.
 
The S&P 500 closed 0.9% above its 50-dMA.That’s a good sign.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral until we see bullish confirmation from the indicators.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.