Navigate the Stock Market

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Time to Buy?

When we look at today’s (Tuesday’s) final numbers, we see a possible buying opportunity. Volumes were lower on today’s retest of the low and internals improved. This suggests that the correction has ended or is close to ending…in theory. There are questions: The “correction” has only lasted 15-days so far and that is a bit short; the S&P 500 has only fallen 4% from its all-time high. That’s not much. There is a bigger concern, at least regarding calling a bottom.

What I am doing is standard technical analysis. It is not a secret and Wall Street is well aware of techniques to call a bottom. When I check futures, they are slightly higher at 10:30 pm Tuesday, but not suggesting that Wall Street is buying.

I’ll wait and see if there is significant buying Wednesday that would confirm a buying opportunity. If there is, I’ll join in, especially if we see late-day buying. Otherwise, I’ll wait for a better opportunity.

Housing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -18 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

Monday the S&P 500 closed 0.5% below its 50-dMA. Tuesday it was down again. When the Index closes below its 50-dMA on consecutive days, it is seen by some as a change-in-trend signal, i.e., the trend is now down. I’m not sure we needed an indicator to tell us that.

There was some good news today. Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were oversold. Those are bottom indicators. Will it be a bottom? Not necessarily. Markets can remain oversold for extended periods. Let’s check the market numbers.

Volume was projected to be slightly lower today suggesting less “selling;” internals were very good. Together these stats are suggesting “correction over.”

The Lowry Research Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator is still headed down. That indicator called the bottom of the last big correction in October of 2022. It isn’t calling a bottom yet, but we always point out that small corrections give small signals. One fact that argues against the correction being over? – the S&P 500 has only fallen 3.7% from its all-time-high and that’s not much of a correction.

Volume will update until 8PM tonight. This call will come down to the wire and I’ll update the data tonight or tomorrow. If volume turns out to be lower than the prior low, it would suggest that this correction is over. Maybe Investors are guessing that Nvidia will save the day with good earnings tomorrow – not a bad guess.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish, but that will change if volume comes in lighter.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, November 17, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -18 (18 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

The S&P 500 dropped most of the day and closed 0.5% below its 50-dMA. If it closes there again tomorrow it would suggest a trend change and would signal we are in correction territory.

When we look at the data today, we note that volumes on the NYSE declined in comparison to the prior lower low. That’s a good sign suggesting less selling, but internals were worse, so today was not a successful test of the low – correction not over.

As a guess, I might say that there is a 20% chance today, Monday, was the low.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish. It looks like we are heading into a correction. Based on prior work (and previous posts in this blog) a correction from here is likely to be less than 10%. The S&P 500 is 8.5% above its 200-dMA and that would be a logical guess to the extent of a correction.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Friday, November 14, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued sharply down, a BEARSH sign.

There was late day selling on the S&P 500 and afternoon selling on the Nasdaq. Neither are especially bullish. Indicators crashed down too. While the markets looked bad, there were some signs that selling is slowing. Volume was lower on the NYSE than yesterday’s low and much lower than the 6 November low. Internals improved too, although not enough to give me a buy signal. Still, small declines give small signals so we may not see a confirmed successful test of the prior low. All we can conclude is that there is a possibility that today was the low for the current decline. As a guess I might say that there is a 40% chance today, Friday, was the low.

Let’s see if we can get some further clues on Monday. If we see a strong day with late-day buying, it would suggest that Friday was possibly a bottom.

There are still plenty of bear signs so let’s hope we see some more clues next week.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, November 13, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +4 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign, but it remains almost flat suggesting a possible reversal to the bullish side.

I mentioned yesterday that it would be nice to see the Technology stocks drop to their 50-dMA. I didn’t expect it to happen in less than 24 hours! The S&P 500 finished 0.6% above its 50-dMA as of Thursday’s close; The Technology Sector (XLK) was 0.7% above its 50-dMA. Now we need to figure out if this is a buying opportunity. Thursday’s low was on lower volume than the recent low on 6 November, so it might have been a successful test of the prior low. The trouble is, we don’t know. Buying pressure fell compared to the prior low. My suggestion is to wait and see. A strong bounce followed by further gains would suggest a time to buy. We could also see more selling.

I saw a piece that said the current selling in technology was by Hedge Funds and Wall Street pros. If the average investor joins in the selling, a correction is likely. On the other hand, we might see retail investors buy the dip – no correction.

Monday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms. Today could be a short-term bottom, but there were only two Bottom Indicators, not enough to send a strong bottom-signal, so I don’t know.

The was another Fosback Hi/Low Logic Indicator sell signal today, and another Hindenburg Omen. That’s 8 Omens in 13 days.

There is now only a 47% chance of a rate cut at the December meeting according to the CME Group Fed Watch, so the Fed may not be propping up the market.

Let’s see what happens in the next day or two.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

As of Friday, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

DEMOCRATS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHUTDOWN (Washington Examiner)
“House Minority Whip Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA)...said the quiet part out loud. During an interview on Fox News, Clark admitted — perhaps mistakenly, perhaps in a moment of rare political truth from a left-wing politician — that the government shutdown was an opportunity for Democrats to gain political leverage, even if people were suffering.
“Shutdowns are terrible,” Clark said. “And of course, there will be families that are going to suffer. We take that responsibility very seriously. But it is one of the few leverage times we have.” Leverage. Democrats repeatedly went on their soapboxes and preached about the shutdown hurting people when, in reality, the only thing they cared about was political power and using perceived "leverage"...
...This stunt should cost the Democrats, politically. They should lose a ton of credibility with the public. They should be deemed untrustworthy. Their narrative, even before the shutdown began, was dishonest and deceptive, predicated on advancing a political agenda rather than prioritizing the welfare of the people.
From ‘leverage’ to lies, Democrats were always responsible for shutdown suffering
My cmt: It may hurt Dems politically, or not. Trump is such a polarizing figure – and old school Republicans would love to dump Trump – it is hard to imagine that the Republicans will gain too much from the Democrat stumble. Trump made one of the dumbest political decisions in history when he canceled SNAP payments BEFORE the election. As a result, Trump lost ground with Hispanics, throwing away the gains he made in the last election.

PROBING HOW PULTE [DIRECTOR OF FEDERAL HOUSING] OBTAINED MORTGAGE RECORDS (WSJ)
“Fannie Mae watchdogs who were removed from their jobs had been probing if Trump appointee Bill Pulte had improperly obtained mortgage records of key Democratic officials, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, according to people familiar with the matter.
Fannie’s ethics and investigations group had received internal complaints alleging senior officials had improperly directed staff to access the mortgage documents of James and others, according to the people. The Fannie investigators were probing to find out who had made the orders, whether Pulte had the authority to seek the documents and whether or not they had followed proper procedure, the people said.
That group elevated the probe about the James documents to the more senior Office of Inspector General for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that Pulte heads, the people said. The acting inspector general then passed the report to the U.S. attorney’s office in eastern Virginia, some of the people said.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/fannie-mae-watchdogs-probed-how-pulte-obtained-mortgage-records-of-key-democrats-07c5cc39?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdrqY5XzKUJKt7eCRIXbl88Y3DQZdGS2343n5BK9REKqJ_D4JDOVmvowC7RfqA%3D&gaa_ts=6914f1c4&gaa_sig=ItRk4NNGvA5z7-t9Wh4EaGeD1nQiQS7P4kO8MX4dwqK8gQ75Ktu2ZLGiGJRIpfj9D3DYejvHOhvWucM7laWrUg%3D%3D
My cmt: Trump has already cleaned house in the Eastern District of Virginia by firing its head and installing Lindsey Halligan, his former aide and insurance lawyer with no prosecutorial experience. This looks like more illegal firings...But wait, there’s more...
...“The progressive watchdog group Campaign for Accountability filed a complaint against Interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan on Tuesday and requested that the state bars in Florida and Virginia initiate investigations into her conduct...A federal judge is already examining Halligan's conduct after defense attorneys raised concerns with the legality of her appointment.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/US/watchdog-group-files-bar-complaint-prosecutor-lindsey-halligan/story?id=127448129

FED TORN OVER RATE CUT IN DECEMBER (WSJ)
“The path for interest-rate cuts has been clouded by an emerging split within the central bank with little precedent during Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nearly eight-year tenure. Officials are fractured over which poses the greater threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market—and even a resumption of official economic data may not bridge the differences.” Story at...
The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut

PRIVATE JOBS DATA PAINTS GRIM PICTURE (Newsweek)
“The latest data from ADP indicates that the labor market experienced a significant slowdown in the second half of October. ADP last week reported that private-sector jobs grew by 42,000 during the month, exceeding the FactSet consensus estimate of 37,500 and up from a loss of 29,000 in September... A Dow Jones survey offered an even gloomier outlook for the job market. According to Forbes, the economists polled projected a loss of 60,000 jobs in October, along with an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.5 percent from 4.3 percent, according to the latest government reading for August. The Indeed Hiring Lab, meanwhile, found that job postings fell to their lowest level since 2021 in late October, “with year-over-year declines recorded in almost every sector.” Story at...
Private jobs data paints grim picture as Fed wrestles with rate cut

S&P 500 IS CLOSE TO A MARKET PEAK (Fortune)
“Bank of America Research has issued a fresh warning for equity investors: the S&P 500, now hovering near historic highs, is demonstrating elevated risk levels with 60% of the firm’s proprietary “bear market signposts” flashing red—just shy of the point that has historically heralded a market peak. The bank’s S&P 500 Relative Value Cheat Sheet, published Monday, reflected growing caution among the team led by Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Savita Subramanian. Subramanian’s team argued that investors should be increasingly selective, as the broad index has become “statistically expensive on everything.” All 20 of the valuation metrics tracked by her team are at expensive levels, and in fact have never been more expensive in several key areas, including market cap to GDP. The S&P 500 is also trading above its Tech Bubble levels on nine different metrics...” Story at...
https://fortune.com/2025/10/22/when-will-the-stock-market-bubble-burst-bear-market-signs/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6851.
-VIX rose about 1% to 17.51.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.065% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The following is probably wishful thinking: The XLK (Technology Select Sector ETF has not touched its 50-dMA since early September and it didn’t stay there long. During the recent stock market weakness, the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and the DJI all dropped below their 50-dMAs. XLK has been the market leader for a long time. I expect it to resume that lead. With that in mind, I am watching the XLK to see if will decline to its 50-day; a drop of another 2-3% would get it there. If it does, I think a bounce from there would be a good buy signal.

If it XLK falls below its 50-dMA and continues down, it will drag the markets down with it.

This analysis is based on my suspicion that we are not seeing a “rotation.” When the leaders get weak in the knees, we need to be concerned. The other alternative is that Technology just continues higher and that may be a decent bet as the XLK gained strength today later in the afternoon. As I said, it may be Wishful thinking that XLK will telegraph a buying opportunity. (The Nasadaq Composite Index chart looks a lot like XLK.)

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from Zero to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign, but it is almost flat suggesting a reversal to the bullish side.

Given the big improvement in indicator spread I will probably be buying back some positions I sold. The S&P 500 was nearly flat, so I didn’t move today.

I’m watching the XLK – ETF. I won’t buy if it moves down and I want to see indicators continue higher.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -11 to zero (equal Bear indicators and Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.

Is a correction underway? If the market weakness was all about the shutdown we might conclude no; internals were strong today, it looks like it may be time to get back to a fully invested position. Apparently, I was the “Dumb Money” this time around, as I wrote Friday.

Given the big improvement in indicator spread I will probably be buying back some positions I sold. If markets head down tomorrow, I’ll likely wait a bit longer.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)