Housing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
TY COBB: COMEY CASE IS DEAD (The Hill)
“Former White House lawyer Ty Cobb on Monday said the Justice Department’s (DOJ) case against former FBI Director James Comey is “dead” due to missteps made by Lindsey Halligan, U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, throughout the indictment…Magistrate Judge [William] Fitzpatrick’s opinion today will be taught in law schools for 50 years as the epitome of prosecutorial misconduct.“…Cobb told CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront“ that Halligan was to blame “in large part” for the errors. 
“Her time in the grand jury is extraordinary. She told the grand jury, basically, that Comey didn’t have a Fifth Amendment right at trial to refuse to testify,” he told host Erin Burnett. “And therefore, he would be able to give his explanation as to the events and counter the government’s evidence, which the judge noted appropriately was burden shifting.”
“And moreover, she told the grand jury in an extraordinary statement not to worry about the record with which they had been presented because the government had better evidence at trial,” he continued. “That’s like saying, ‘Please indict this person because we don’t have time to indict innocent people.’ It’s just way, way, way out of bounds.” Story at…
Ty Cobb: DOJ Comey case ‘dead’
My cmt: Cobb is not a biased political hack. He was White House special counsel under Trump in 2018. 
 
NAHB HOUSING (Advisor Perspectives)
“Builder confidence was relatively flat in November as economic uncertainty kept sentiment in negative territory for a 19th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) inched up from (Advisor Perspectives)37 in October to 38 in November. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 37…“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C.” Commentary at… 
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-november-2025
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 6617.
-VIX rose about 7% to 23.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.119% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 22 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -18 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
Monday the S&P 500 closed 0.5% below its 50-dMA. Tuesday it was down again.  When the Index closes below its 50-dMA on consecutive days, it is seen by some as a change-in-trend signal, i.e., the trend is now down. I’m not sure we needed an indicator to tell us that.
 
There was some good news today. Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were oversold. Those are bottom indicators.  Will it be a bottom? Not necessarily. Markets can remain oversold for extended periods. Let’s check the market numbers.
 
Volume was projected to be slightly lower today suggesting less “selling;” internals were very good. Together these stats are suggesting “correction over.”
 
The Lowry Research Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator is still headed down. That indicator called the bottom of the last big correction in October of 2022. It isn’t calling a bottom yet, but we always point out that small corrections give small signals. One fact that argues against the correction being over? – the S&P 500 has only fallen 3.7% from its all-time-high and that’s not much of a correction.
 
Volume will update until 8PM tonight.  This call will come down to the wire and I’ll update the data tonight or tomorrow. If volume turns out to be lower than the prior low, it would suggest that this correction is over. Maybe Investors are guessing that Nvidia will save the day with good earnings tomorrow – not a bad guess.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish, but that will change if volume comes in lighter.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.