... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
TIME TO DUMP TRUMP (Daily Beast)
“No one ever accused Marjorie Taylor Greene of being the sharpest tool in the shed. So when the penny drops for her, you can be pretty sure it has already hit home for millions of others of even the most slow-motion minds in America...Greene’s revelation, one that has come as a surprise to many, is that it is now time for the members of MAGA world to distance themselves from Donald Trump. And, for one of the few times in her career, it has to be acknowledged: She is right.” - David Rothkopf. Opinion at...
Opinion: It’s About Time For Republicans to Dump Donald Trump
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 0.1% to 6734.
-VIX declined about 1% to 19.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.15% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -2 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued sharply down, a BEARSH sign.
 
There was late day selling on the S&P 500 and afternoon selling on the Nasdaq.  Neither are especially bullish. Indicators crashed down too. While the markets looked bad, there were some signs that selling is slowing.  Volume was lower on the NYSE than yesterday’s low and much lower than the 6 November low. Internals improved too, although not enough to give me a buy signal. Still, small declines give small signals so we may not see a confirmed successful test of the prior low. All we can conclude is that there is a possibility that today was the low for the current decline. As a guess I might say that there is a 40% chance today, Friday, was the low.
 
Let’s see if we can get some further clues on Monday.  If we see a strong day with late-day buying, it would suggest that Friday was possibly a bottom.
 
There are still plenty of bear signs so let’s hope we see some more clues next week.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.