“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“House Minority Whip Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA)...said the quiet part out loud. During an interview on Fox News, Clark admitted — perhaps mistakenly, perhaps in a moment of rare political truth from a left-wing politician — that the government shutdown was an opportunity for Democrats to gain political leverage, even if people were suffering.
“Shutdowns are terrible,” Clark said. “And of course, there will be families that are going to suffer. We take that responsibility very seriously. But it is one of the few leverage times we have.” Leverage. Democrats repeatedly went on their soapboxes and preached about the shutdown hurting people when, in reality, the only thing they cared about was political power and using perceived "leverage"...
...This stunt should cost the Democrats, politically. They should lose a ton of credibility with the public. They should be deemed untrustworthy. Their narrative, even before the shutdown began, was dishonest and deceptive, predicated on advancing a political agenda rather than prioritizing the welfare of the people.
From ‘leverage’ to lies, Democrats were always responsible for shutdown suffering
My cmt: It may hurt Dems politically, or not. Trump is such a polarizing figure – and old school Republicans would love to dump Trump – it is hard to imagine that the Republicans will gain too much from the Democrat stumble. Trump made one of the dumbest political decisions in history when he canceled SNAP payments BEFORE the election. As a result, Trump lost ground with Hispanics, throwing away the gains he made in the last election.
“Fannie Mae watchdogs who were removed from their jobs had been probing if Trump appointee Bill Pulte had improperly obtained mortgage records of key Democratic officials, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, according to people familiar with the matter.
Fannie’s ethics and investigations group had received internal complaints alleging senior officials had improperly directed staff to access the mortgage documents of James and others, according to the people. The Fannie investigators were probing to find out who had made the orders, whether Pulte had the authority to seek the documents and whether or not they had followed proper procedure, the people said.
That group elevated the probe about the James documents to the more senior Office of Inspector General for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that Pulte heads, the people said. The acting inspector general then passed the report to the U.S. attorney’s office in eastern Virginia, some of the people said.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/fannie-mae-watchdogs-probed-how-pulte-obtained-mortgage-records-of-key-democrats-07c5cc39?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdrqY5XzKUJKt7eCRIXbl88Y3DQZdGS2343n5BK9REKqJ_D4JDOVmvowC7RfqA%3D&gaa_ts=6914f1c4&gaa_sig=ItRk4NNGvA5z7-t9Wh4EaGeD1nQiQS7P4kO8MX4dwqK8gQ75Ktu2ZLGiGJRIpfj9D3DYejvHOhvWucM7laWrUg%3D%3D
My cmt: Trump has already cleaned house in the Eastern District of Virginia by firing its head and installing Lindsey Halligan, his former aide and insurance lawyer with no prosecutorial experience. This looks like more illegal firings...But wait, there’s more...
...“The progressive watchdog group Campaign for Accountability filed a complaint against Interim U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan on Tuesday and requested that the state bars in Florida and Virginia initiate investigations into her conduct...A federal judge is already examining Halligan's conduct after defense attorneys raised concerns with the legality of her appointment.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/US/watchdog-group-files-bar-complaint-prosecutor-lindsey-halligan/story?id=127448129
“The path for interest-rate cuts has been clouded by an emerging split within the central bank with little precedent during Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nearly eight-year tenure. Officials are fractured over which poses the greater threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market—and even a resumption of official economic data may not bridge the differences.” Story at...
The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut
“The latest data from ADP indicates that the labor market experienced a significant slowdown in the second half of October. ADP last week reported that private-sector jobs grew by 42,000 during the month, exceeding the FactSet consensus estimate of 37,500 and up from a loss of 29,000 in September... A Dow Jones survey offered an even gloomier outlook for the job market. According to Forbes, the economists polled projected a loss of 60,000 jobs in October, along with an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.5 percent from 4.3 percent, according to the latest government reading for August. The Indeed Hiring Lab, meanwhile, found that job postings fell to their lowest level since 2021 in late October, “with year-over-year declines recorded in almost every sector.” Story at...
Private jobs data paints grim picture as Fed wrestles with rate cut
“Bank of America Research has issued a fresh warning for equity investors: the S&P 500, now hovering near historic highs, is demonstrating elevated risk levels with 60% of the firm’s proprietary “bear market signposts” flashing red—just shy of the point that has historically heralded a market peak. The bank’s S&P 500 Relative Value Cheat Sheet, published Monday, reflected growing caution among the team led by Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Savita Subramanian. Subramanian’s team argued that investors should be increasingly selective, as the broad index has become “statistically expensive on everything.” All 20 of the valuation metrics tracked by her team are at expensive levels, and in fact have never been more expensive in several key areas, including market cap to GDP. The S&P 500 is also trading above its Tech Bubble levels on nine different metrics...” Story at...
https://fortune.com/2025/10/22/when-will-the-stock-market-bubble-burst-bear-market-signs/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6851.
-VIX rose about 1% to 17.51.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.065% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
I’m neutral, leaning bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
