... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
DEMOCRATS – WHAT WAS THE POINT? (USA Today)
“The jig is finally up for Senate Democrats, and the optics do not look good for them.
Come next November, Democratic voters should remember that the government was closed for a record amount of time and that almost the entire Democratic caucus seems willing to keep the government closed indefinitely for leverage they didn't even really have... This didn't have to happen in the first place. It was a colossal waste of time and effort on the part of the Democratic Party.” Column at...
Honestly, Democrats. What was the point of your government shutdown? | Opinion
 
DEMOCRATS FIXED HEALTH CARE (Washington Examiner)
“Whether you want to criticize the GOP for not having a plan [to fix healthcare] or not, the fact remains that this “crisis,” as Democrats call it, is a Democratic crisis. They created it when they made the healthcare system worse in 2010, on the promise that they would make everything better and cheaper. Schumer would know, given that he voted for Obamacare in 2010. The crisis here is not Republicans wanting to end subsidies that keep Democrats’ terrible plan afloat. The crisis is that Democrats broke the healthcare system and want more subsidies to avoid admitting that they have failed.” Opinion at...
Do Democrats remember they ‘fixed’ healthcare with Obamacare?
 
JUSTICES ARE NOT FOOLS (The Hill)
“It’s never a good idea to treat U.S. Supreme Court justices as if they’re fools. And yet U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer, in his Nov. 5 defense of President Trump’s tariff authority, came very close... Sauer may have done the best he could putting lipstick on the pig that is Trump’s tariffs — but it’s still a pig. The most ludicrous aspect of Sauer’s Supreme Court argument was his claim that federal revenue from Trump’s tariffs was “incidental.”... almost everyone but Trump understands, U.S. companies and individuals pay those tariffs, not foreign countries. In other words, Trump is raising taxes on Americans.... Article I of the Constitution vests in Congress the power to tax — and tariffs are taxes. That was intentional. If taxes were going to be imposed on Americans, the founders wanted the people’s elected representatives to make that decision, not one person.”  Opinion at...
Opinion: Those justices are not fools
My cmt: Trump warns of economic disaster if the Supreme Court strikes down tariffs. Of course, that directly counters the legal argument made by Trump’s people to the Supreme Court that tariffs are not revenue generators. He also ignores the fact that it is not the job of the Supreme Court to avoid disaster or even to do what they think is right (though the liberal justices often forget that fact). It is the job of the Supreme Court to interpret the Constitution. 
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6847.
-VIX declined about 2% to 17.31.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury remained 4.122% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -11 to zero (equal Bear indicators and Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
Is a correction underway? If the market weakness was all about the shutdown we might conclude no; internals were strong today, it looks like it may be time to get back to a fully invested position. Apparently, I was the “Dumb Money” this time around, as I wrote Friday.
 
Given the big improvement in indicator spread I will probably be buying back some positions I sold. If markets head down tomorrow, I’ll likely wait a bit longer.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.