... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
Sorry, Republicans: ‘Democratic socialist’ is no longer a career-ender in US politics (The Hill)
“At his victory celebration on election night, Zohran Mamdani declared, “I am young, despite my best efforts to grow older. I am Muslim. I am a democratic socialist. And most damning of all, I refuse to apologize for any of this.” 
As the crowd roared its approval, the mayor-elect reaffirmed his priorities: freeze rents on stabilized apartments; make bus service free; construct 200,000 housing units; raise the minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030; provide free universal childcare and “a better distribution of wealth for all God’s children.” He then thanked young New Yorkers “who refuse to accept that the promise of a better life is a relic of the past.” Story at...
Opinion: Sorry, Republicans: ‘Democratic socialist’ is no longer a career-ender in US politics
My cmt: Sorry Republicans? How about, Sorry United States?
 
RENT CONTROL AS A CONSTITUTIONAL TAKING (WSJ)
“Finding an affordable place to live in New York City is an ordeal, but it doesn’t have to be as bad as it is. The city’s low vacancy rate is made worse by rent regulations that have taken many New York city apartments off the rental market. That’s the subject of a lawsuit filed Wednesday by building owners [Pashko and Tony Lulgjuraj] challenging the city’s rent “stabilization” law. The statute limits the rent increases a landlord can demand of existing tenants or new ones. Rent increases are limited to between 3% and 4.5% when a tenant renews an existing lease or when the apartment is vacated... After decades with long-term tenants, the brothers calculated that getting the apartments back up to code would cost thousands of dollars that couldn’t be recouped at the artificially low rent cap. So the apartments sit vacant and off the rental market. According to the Census Bureau, in 2024 there were some 26,000 regulated apartments in the same situation.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/rent-control-new-york-lawsuit-pashko-tony-lulgjuraj-1ddd5663?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc4DF7pTuEzC-b6Ma1xMxWi_qlbFrwAmJGTLKlejzDJDE6ezVMRuyN6RV0Voks%3D&gaa_ts=691a3bee&gaa_sig=5uylQP2xkWG099tOKVeSS9TssCnaqXBpK3y0fMQ8X9p9_n1wWbNsvJRZzE_LlFyZ2Ufhx7dQArKD3M5tb40Xmg%3D%3D
My cmt: Mr. Mamdani’s plans will only make matters worse.
 
TRUMP FAILING ON INFLATION (Light Wave Reports)
“President Donald Trump is confronting a deepening political liability as new data shows his standing on inflation has cratered, CNN data analyst Harry Enten told anchor Kate Bolduan this week. Enten said the shift is not about “fake” polling, as Trump has repeatedly claimed, but a measurable rejection from voters themselves.” Story at…
Polling Expert Sees ‘Massive Issue’ Turning Voters Against Trump
My cmt: This is hilarious. Of all the reasons to turn on Trump - here’s a partial list: He is killing suspected smugglers with military force; he is firing everyone in the Justice Department who followed their orders and investigated Trump; he has installed a sycophant yes-man cabinet; he has been despicable to women; he attempted to overthrow a lawful election in 2020 and he still claims he beat Biden; he led an attempt to block election certification thru intimidation and riot; he has pardoned his fellow criminals, etc. Now the public is turning on him for inflation??!! Inflation under Biden was 10% - prices double every 7 years. They’re mad at Trump for inflation? Inflation has fallen to 3% under Trump - prices will double every 24 years – still above the Fed target, but a lot closer now.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 0.9% to 6672.
-VIX rose about 13% to 22.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.137% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – SOLD 11/7
XLK – SOLD 11/7
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -18 (18 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
The S&P 500 dropped most of the day and closed 0.5% below its 50-dMA. If it closes there again tomorrow it would suggest a trend change and would signal we are in correction territory.
 
When we look at the data today, we note that volumes on the NYSE declined in comparison to the prior lower low. That’s a good sign suggesting less selling, but internals were worse, so today was not a successful test of the low – correction not over.
 
As a guess, I might say that there is a 20% chance today, Friday, was the low.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish. It looks like we are heading into a correction. Based on prior work (and previous posts in this blog) a correction from here is likely to be less than 10%. The S&P 500 is 8.5% above its 200-dMA and that would be a logical guess to the extent of a correction.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.