Another Stock Market Crash Warning

“Dreaded IPO-crash signal flashes bear warnings, by Paul B Farrell
Replay of '90s IPO mania blows new bubble
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) - Yes, this really is the hottest IPO market since 2000. And that's bad news. Very bad. Remember my last column back in 1999...”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dreaded-ipo-crash-signal-flashes-bear-warnings-2012-04-24?pagenumber=1

Yes, this article is a crash warning.  He offers few specifics and says that ‘History just keeps repeating ... for 800 years ... but we learn nothing.’"

I didn’t learn much from the article either except that he loved the book, “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.

I’ve quoted research by Reinhart and Rogoff a couple of times. They reported that when countries are indebted as much as the US, they incur no-growth or recession based on 200-years of data.  That’s ok, this time is different.

THE MARKET

The S&P 500 was UP 0.4% Tuesday to 1372.  VIX was DOWN nearly 5% to 18.1.

NTSM

When I updated yesterday’s data with the late breaking Sentiment figures and final Volume numbers, yesterday turned out to be a BUY and the NTSM analysis was BUY again today.

The reason is counter intuitive: the continued down action in Price and Sentiment moved NTSM to buy.   I don’t think this is a reason for having a buying party though.  We are much closer to the top than we are to the bottom.

MY INVESTED POSITION

I bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy signal.  I remain 100% long in the long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).