RECESSION
“...we've never seen the
ensemble of broad economic drivers and aggregate output (real personal income,
real personal consumption, real final sales, global output, real GDP, and even
employment growth) jointly as weak as they are now on a year-over-year basis,
except in association with recession... My guess is that we'll eventually mark
a new recession as beginning in April or May 2012.”
STOCKS
Mr.
Hussman Characterized the market as an “...overextended market coupled with a
loss of supporting factors...among
the most negative 1% of observations on record, particularly on a 6-18 month
horizon..." Weekly Market Commentary for 23 April 2012, Hussman Funds at...
MARKET COMMENTARY FROM
GORDON LIGHTFOOT
“Sometimes I think it’s a
sin,
when I feel like I’m
winnin’ but I’m losin’ again.”
...so much for my Friday
optimism.
LONDON (MarketWatch) —
“It’s been a black weekend for economic and monetary union (EMU). The first
round of the French presidential elections has torpedoed German Chancellor
Angela Merkel’s strategy for guiding cash-strapped EMU members out of trouble.
The euro area’s No. 2 creditor country after Germany, the Netherlands, is
without a functioning administration after the government fell on Saturday in
another row over shoring up the single currency’s faltering framework.”
It seems austerity is not
popular. Go figure. Full story at...
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was DOWN 0.8%
Monday to 1367. VIX was UP 9% to 19.07.
NTSM
In spite of the bad day, the
NTSM analysis remains HOLD as of the close Monday and, depending on the final
numbers, may actually be a Buy.
That’s a real surprise to
me. I thought I might find a sell at the
close today considering the market is down so much.
Some indicators are
suggesting sell; others buy. Still,
there is no volume increase. There is
almost always some volume increase, either before the top or after a top. Nothing yet!
The water is getting
warmer, but the frogs aren’t jumping.
(Referring to that old idea that if you heat the water slowly enough,
the frogs won’t know they’re getting cooked.)
I don’t know about you, but I am feeling warm.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
