Excerpt from the “NEW
AMERICAN”:
Former Treasury official,
Lawrence Goodman wrote, “Last year the Fed purchased a stunning 61% of the
total net Treasury issuance, up from negligible amounts prior to the 2008
financial crisis. This not only creates
the false impression of limitless demand for U.S. debt but also blunts any
sense of urgency to reduce supersized budget deficits…The failure by officials
to normalize conditions in the U.S. Treasury market and curtail ballooning
deficits puts the U.S. economy and markets at risk for a sharp correction…..” Full story at…
Pretty scary, huh? I don’t think there is anything I can add to
that.
I wrote yesterday, that I
plan to wait for the NTSM analysis and see if we can eke out a few more percent
before the S&P 500 corrects. That’s
a confusing statement. What I meant was,
I’ll wait for the NTSM analysis to give a sell signal before I sell. The NTSM analysis is theoretically tuned to
ignore corrections of 10% or less. I say
“theoretically,” because it isn’t that exact – I wish it were. At this point, I haven’t seen any wild
gyrations in buy-sell moves often associated with a top, so I think we can go
higher. We’ll see.
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was down
0.4% Tuesday to 1413. VIX closed at 15.7,
up slightly.
The S&P 500 is 11%
above its 200-dMA.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains HOLD
today.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
