BEIGE BOOK (Market Watch.com)
The Fed’s “Beige Book”
said growth is “modest to moderate.”
It’s the same adjective used to describe the economy in the prior two reports...
“….generally, the report
showed an economy chugging if not roaring along: manufacturing expanding,
professional business services growing, freight volume increasing, strong
new-car sales, growing tourism, favorable agricultural conditions, more mining
and oil extraction and some improving loan demand….Institute for Supply
Management surveys of purchasing managers showed expansion in both
manufacturing and services sectors in March, and first-quarter U.S. auto sales
were the strongest since 2008.” Full
story at
CRASH COMING (From CNBC .com)
Stock Markets are likely
to see a selloff of around 10 percent in the second quarter but over the longer
term share prices may go even lower, according to Bob Janjuah, co-head of
global macro research and head of tactical asset allocation at Nomura
Securities.... I think in the second quarter we should expect a nice 10 percent
equity sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling...to 1280 (+/-20)," he
said.... Ultimately, Janjuah expects the S&P 500...to fall to
800..."before we can begin the next multi-decade bull cycle."
BUYING OPORTUNITY (CNBC Video):
“Katie Stockton, MKM Partners chief market technician, said,
"I think this pullback will ultimately be short-lived and present a buying
opportunity.”
Video at...
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was UP 0.75%
Wednesday to 1369. VIX closed down 2% to
20.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains
HOLD as of the close Wednesday. Our
volume indicator has flashed to sell, but the VIX indicator has not confirmed
it so far, thus the overall analysis remains HOLD. The
Price indicator pulled back quite a bit so it is more in line with the other
indicators.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
