News from Friday – Hiring
NEW YORK
(CNNMoney) -- Hiring slowed dramatically in March, clouding optimism about the
strength of the recovery….Economists attributed part of the hiring
slowdown to an unseasonably warm winter that boosted job growth in January and
February. The Labor Department adjusts its data to account for seasonal trends,
and the warm weather may have distorted those calculations….But still, seasonal
adjustments didn't explain all of the slowdown. Full story: http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/06/news/economy/jobs-report-unemployment/index.htm
We suspected that this might happen based on a Hussman commentary a few weeks ago.
The markets were closed
Friday, but futures trading was still underway when the Friday employment data
was released. Futures were down 2%
Friday. Stocks were only down 1% today
so maybe we had a moral victory today.
The S&P 500 broke the
lower trend line today by about 1-1/2%. That’s
might not be enough to say that the market is headed to its 200-dMA, but it’s
close.
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was down 1%
point Monday to 1382. VIX closed up 13%. Not good – but it could have been worse. The S&P 500 is 9% above its 200-dMA. If we have a correction, I don’t think it
will be much more than about a 9% drop.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains
HOLD as of the close Monday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
