“NEW YORK
(CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed mixed Thursday, with the broader market
falling for a third day, amid renewed worries about the debt crisis in Europe.” Full story at…
I heard some folks mention
that there was a disconnect between Europe and the US so that troubles in
Europe might be contained to Europe.
Don’t believe it; there is a high degree of correlation between Europe
and the US economies. So far, the
expectation has been for a shallow recession in Europe.
The NTSM analysis is
neutral at present. We can go either way
from here - bounce off the bottom trend line and move up; or continue lower,
perhaps to the 200-dMA (about a 10% correction). My guess is we bounce and move up next
week. That’s only a guess – NTSM analysis
doesn’t predict the future. At present,
it doesn’t look like the S&P 500 is at risk for a huge gain or loss. That could change depending on the news, of
course. I must admit that the risk
currently is for more downside than up.
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was down 1
point Thursday to 1398. VIX closed at
16.7, up 1.6%.
The S&P 500 remains
10% above its 200-dMA.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains
HOLD today.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
The market is closed
Friday for the holidays so no blog tommorow.
Happy Passover – Happy Easter.
