THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was DOWN 1.25%
Friday to 1370. VIX closed UP 14% to 19.55.
The S&P 500 is 8%
above its 200-dMA. That should represent
a bottom to this correction…or for the optimists;
there is a chance that this is just a drop to the lower trend line i.e., the
trend lines have expanded as the rally has gotten older. If that is the case, the “correction” is over
and the S&P 500 should move up from here.
Many talking heads (CNBC,
blogs, etc.) have been confident that this correction will be shallow and is
nothing to worry about (and I said that too, a while back.) Volume has not moved up on this
pullback. The only day that volume has
been above its 20-dMA was on the 10th of April when the S&P 500
dropped 1.7%. Normally, if there is a
pullback, volume increases as selling picks up.
So far there has been no volume increase. That’s good.
I have a concern though.
If everyone thinks the
market will not fall much, “everone” is usually wrong.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains
HOLD as of the close Friday, but indicators continue to slowly deteriorate. It could indicate sell fairly soon.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
