from NPR,
Apr 25, 2012,
"Orders for durable goods dropped 4.2 percent in March, the steepest fall since January 2009, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Commercial aircraft orders, a volatile category, fell by nearly 50 percent.
Excluding transportation equipment, orders declined 1.1 percent. That's the second drop in that category in three months... "'This was a weak report,' said Ellen Zentner, senior economist at Nomura Securities. It 'certainly points to slowing business investment as we enter the second quarter.'" Story at…
http://www.npr.org/2012/04/25/151349743/durable-goods-orders-down-steeply
"Orders for durable goods dropped 4.2 percent in March, the steepest fall since January 2009, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Commercial aircraft orders, a volatile category, fell by nearly 50 percent.
Excluding transportation equipment, orders declined 1.1 percent. That's the second drop in that category in three months... "'This was a weak report,' said Ellen Zentner, senior economist at Nomura Securities. It 'certainly points to slowing business investment as we enter the second quarter.'" Story at…
http://www.npr.org/2012/04/25/151349743/durable-goods-orders-down-steeply
This month’s number still
represents a 2.7% increase over year-ago, durable-goods orders. I should also point out that the rate of rise
of the Durable Goods orders since the end of the Great Recession is
unprecedented in the last 20-years. This
month’s decrease may simply represent a return to a more “Normal” rate of
increase based on the past 20-yrs of records.
April’s number (available near the end of May) will be closely watched.
AAPL
One stock did well today,
but I can’t quite…oh, yeah. Apple did
something, but.... Oh, wait! Apple reported earnings twice last year’s
earnings and AAPL was up 9%. That’s the only stock that was reported
today. One more note: They are changing the name of the QQQ ETF to QUAPL.
FEDERAL RESERVE
NEW YORK
(CNNMoney) – “The Federal Reserve believes the economy is improving, but not
enough to warrant a change in its stimulative policies just yet.” Story at…
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was UP 1.4% Wednesday to 1392. VIX was DOWN nearly 7% to 16.85.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis switched
to HOLD today, Wednesday.
We had a buy reading Monday
and Tuesday, but that was due to the negative market action and reduced
sentiment that triggered a bottom indicator in the NTSM system. The market is a bit too extended for a real
bottom. As I said yesterday, we are much
closer to the top than a bottom. I
wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick reversal followed by a sell..on the other
hand…I wouldn’t be surprised if we move up from here for another 5% or 10%
gain. In other words; who knows? The NTSM analysis is squarely neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
