SPAIN PROBLEM
John Mauldin pointed out
in his weekly “Thoughts from the Frontline” (14 April 2012) that conditions in
Spain are much worse than anyone had imagined.
It seems the previous Government cooked the books and now the new Government
has revealed that the debt is actually 90% of GDP not 60% as had been
previously reported. Spain is a lot
bigger than Greece so this could get messy.
JOHN HUSSMAN, PhD
“...our estimate of
potential market losses over a 6-month window is now in the worst 0.5% of
historical observations. In particular, we're seeing a very broad-based
downward shift in market action across nearly every industry group... Though
our market concerns are independent of our economic concerns, we see
essentially the same downward uniformity in leading economic measures across
the industrialized and developing world... Of course, our risk estimates are
based on the average
market outcomes that have followed similar evidence over the past century, and
this particular instance may be different.”
From: John Hussman, PhD,
Weekly Market Comment for 16 April 2012 at
SHALLOW CORRECTION
CNN/MONEY
"Stocks rally, but 'shallow correction' will resume" Full story at...
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/
That's the headline at CNN/MONEY: The "shallow-correction"? As I've suggested before, when everyone thinks the market is going to do something - it won't. So maybe the correction will be deep instead of shallow; or perhaps the correction is over. One thing is certain; there’s been no volume increase.
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/
That's the headline at CNN/MONEY: The "shallow-correction"? As I've suggested before, when everyone thinks the market is going to do something - it won't. So maybe the correction will be deep instead of shallow; or perhaps the correction is over. One thing is certain; there’s been no volume increase.
WHERE’S THE VOLUME?
There has been absolutely
no increase in volume as the S&P 500 has lost 3.3 % of its value over the
last 3 weeks. The 20-dMA of volume is 3,711
(That’s in millions, so it’s really 3.7-billion shares traded from all
exchanges.). A month ago it was 3,868. 2-months
ago it was 4,033. I don’t think there
can be a correction without a volume increase.
That doesn’t mean that volume couldn’t increase tomorrow; but on the
other hand, we might just get back to the prior high before this correction gets
going. Enough conjecture! Let’s consider the data.
THE MARKET
The S&P 500 was UP 0% Monday
to 1369. VIX was UP 0%. Rounded off, today was a nothing day.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains
HOLD as of the close Monday.
Our volume indicator has
again flashed to sell, but the VIX indicator has not confirmed it so far, thus
the overall analysis remains HOLD. The
Price indicator moved back to buy. So
NTSM is mixed all around. Sentiment is securely
neutral at 54% bulls as of Friday’s close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I bought back into the
stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct NTSM buy
signal. I remain 100% long in the
long-term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use the
NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
INTERESTING NOTE: My
readership has declined somewhat over the last several weeks. That may mean I am boring, or it may be a
sign of complacency. Don’t be complacent
– the system could generate a sell anytime…or not. The bottom line is that the S&P 500 is
much closer to a top than it is to a bottom and a lot of folks are calling for
an outright crash. A crash will happen
when we least expect it.
