The stock market is all
about earnings so it will be interesting to see where we go from here.
WONKBLOG (A
POSITIVE TAKE ON JOBS)
“The U.S.
economy lost 1.2 million jobs between June and July. But that’s not how it got
reported. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released
its jobs figures for July, it said the economy gained 163,000 jobs…”
due to seasonal adjustments...
(S)ome economists
and analysts now wonder if the BLS seasonal adjustments are somehow off a bit
(since there has been a “slowdown in hiring” every summer)….So look at the
long-term trends. For the past one-and-a-half years, the U.S. economy has added
about 152,000 jobs per month on average. It’s a modest, but certainly not
terrific jobs recovery: According to the Hamilton Project’s jobs calculator,
the U.S. economy won’t get back to full employment until 2025 at this pace.
Still, it’s probably more accurate to watch that long-run average than to
fixate on any one monthly jobs report.”
Full discussion at...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/05/wait-the-u-s-economy-actually-lost-1-2-million-jobs-in-july/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/05/wait-the-u-s-economy-actually-lost-1-2-million-jobs-in-july/
MARKET
Monday the S&P 500
finished UP about 1/4% to 1394. VIX was
up too, 2%, to 15.95 so the options boys didn’t agree today.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis was again BUY at the close on Monday.
Sentiment is 60%-bulls as
of Friday’s close. This rally may end with
a classic overly bullish top. Sentiment
by itself is not a sell signal for the NTSM system, but it is certainly a
warning shot and that will happen when the Sentiment gets to 67%-bulls. (Overly bullish sentiment is bad for stocks.)
The smart money sold off
late today and the VIX was up on an up-day so the odds favor a down
day Tuesday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352. I now have a 50% stock allocation
overall. For my age, that is what most
advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I am underweight my usual aggressive
allocation for stocks because there’s a lot of risk now. So far this year NTSM is beating the S&P
500 by a whopping ½% on one trade.
