I think everyone on Wall
Street is on vacation this week. Starting
this past Monday, volume has dropped about 20% below the past month’s average
daily volume. Looking back a bit further, volume has been dropping since early
June. At the same time the S&P 500
is up about 15% since the 4 June short term low. That’s impressive.
The top of the channel is
1440 (now) and the S&P 500 is only about 6% above its 200-day moving average
so my guess is that the rally will continue.
I will get concerned when the S&P 500 gets 10 to 15% above the
200-dMA.
MARKET
Thursday the S&P 500
finished essentially unchanged (up another point) to 1403. VIX fell 1/4% to 15.28.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis was again BUY at the close on Thursday.
(The
NTSM analysis is designed to call a BUY or SELL at the bottom or top
respectively. For that reason a BUY at
this point is less significant than it would be at a bottom. NTMS could reverse quickly from here, but I
am not making that prediction.)
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352. I now have a 50% stock allocation
overall. For my age, that is what most
advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I am underweight my usual aggressive
allocation for stocks because there’s a lot of risk now. So far this year NTSM is beating the S&P
500 by a whopping ½% on one trade. On a more positive note: NTMS is up about 12% this year.
