NEW YORK (CNNMoney) –
“U.S. stocks ended Thursday in the red, but off the lows of the day, after
investors were disappointed by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's
failure to announce concrete plans to help solve Europe's debt crisis.” Full story at…
http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/02/investing/stocks-markets/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
Perhaps...the financial
press likes to pretend they have all the answers.
MARKET
Thursday the S&P 500
finished down 3/4% to 1365.
The VIX FELL 7% to 17.57
today! Usually a down in the VIX
(S&P 500) corresponds to an up-day in the S&P 500 price. I think today’s VIX action bodes well for tomorrow
I’ll
repeat yesterday’s comment: Over the last month only 30% of the trading days
have been up. Sometimes that sort of
negative trend actually precedes a rally so we’ll see what tomorrow (Friday)
brings. If we don’t get a rally soon,
there will be some SERIOUS selling.
Volume on the NYSE was ½
of yesterday’s volume, so there was little conviction for today’s down day.
Similar to yesterday’s
comment: The market did trade UP late in the day so the “smart money” bought
stocks late in the day, so my take on the smart money overall is that they
remain bullish in the short term. (The pros tend to trade late in the day. So there is a smart money index that follows
late day trading.)
Also, as the chart below
indicates, the S&P 500 is still above its lower trend line so it remains in
an up-trend; there is no need to panic unless this market continues down. If it does the NTSM analysis will turn sell.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis was again BUY at the close on Thursday, but it was close to
neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352. I now have a 50% stock allocation
overall. For my age, that is what most
advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I am underweight my usual aggressive
allocation for stocks because there’s a lot of risk now
