This is not a political piece because Ed Rendell (Former Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania and Chair of the Democratic National Committee) criticizes both Republicans and Democrats reasonably equally. Ignore the grabber title: “Ryan Is a Fiscal Fraud, But Democrats Lack the Guts to Cut Entitlements: Ed Rendell.” I found the piece interesting.
Rendell says, "It's the additional tax cuts that creates the $5
trillion deficit from the Ryan budget…and it's the reason why even in the most
optimistic terms the Ryan budget doesn't produce a balanced budget until
2040," says Rendell, who is also the author the new book "A Nation of Wusses: How America's Leaders Lost the Guts to Make
US Great?"
He also
criticizes his fellow Democrats….’We don't have the guts to tell seniors the
truth," Rendell says. ‘When Medicare was passed in 1965, the average life
expectancy was 69. Today the average life expectancy is 85. Medicare was never
meant to cover nearly 20 years of life. It's got to be changed...there has to
be a reshaping of entitlements.’” Full story
and/or Video at…
MARKET
RECAP
Monday the S&P 500
finished down 1pt to 1410 (rounded). VIX
rose about 8% to 16.35.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis switched to HOLD from the prior Buy at the close on Monday.
The
high climb in the VIX may signal a pullback is coming. The smart Money Index also switched to the
negative today as the pros have been selling in the last hour of trading over
the last month or so. The smart Money
Index is an experimental indicator that I follow, but I don’t trade it because
I don’t have enough data loaded to back test sufficiently.
As
the below chart indicates, the S&P 500 is now closer to the top of the
channel than the bottom. I want to see
it closer to the bottom of the channel before I commit any more $ to stocks.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352 and the NTSM system is beating the S&P 500 by ½% for 2012. Not much, but 89% of all hedge funds are
underperforming the S&P 500 this year (per CNBC) so I should be happy.
I now have a 50% stock
allocation overall. For my age, that is
what most advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I have less invested in stocks now because
there’s a lot of risk.
With so many indicators
that I watch in positive territory, I am still considering moving back into the
market to 100% invested – a truly crazy, risky position, but I am a risk
taker. I will wait for a better buying
opportunity (as noted above).
