“…we’ve got some good
news. Their relentless march upward is almost over… So says, long time oil
industry analyst Tom Petrie, chairman Petrie Partners on CNBC's Fast Money
Halftime Report. “The current run is
late seasonal,” he says. Nothing more.
Full story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48782366
I thought the rise in gas
prices was a sign that the world’s economy was improving and gas prices were
rising on global demand. Shows what I
know! In fact, the Wall Street Journal
reported today that European business activity contracted at a “sharp pace” in
August. “Germany faced its biggest
decline in new orders in three years.”
Manufacturing in China suffered its “…biggest drop in nine months.” The US is not out of the woods yet. The good news is that we may not be in the
woods either.
Here’s another take on
high gas prices from CNN/Money.
OIL NEAR
$100. THANKS A LOT, FED! (CNN/Money)
“Analysts for
KilduffReport.com, an independent energy research firm, noted in a report Thursday morning that "the monetary easing from
the Federal Reserve is coming" and that "regardless of your view on
the effectiveness or necessity of further easing, the markets are highly
reactive to the prospects for it." The upshot is that "inflation
sensitive commodities" like oil and gold, which has also been on the rise
lately, should continue to head higher.” Full story at…
Lower interest rates and the
threat of a devalued dollar (real or imagined) will cause commodities to go
higher, just like QE1 and II. (The
Arnold bread I used to buy cost $2.39 a loaf when the recession started. It’s now $4.39, but that’s not inflation, at
least according to the Government. They
don’t count food.)
MARKET
RECAP
Friday the S&P 500
finished up 0.65% to 1411 (rounded). VIX
fell about 5% to 15.18.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis returned to BUY from the its prior Hold at the close on Friday.
(The
NTSM analysis is designed to call a BUY or SELL at the bottom or top
respectively. A BUY at this point is
less significant than it would be at a bottom.
For that reason, the daily Buy/Sell/or Hold calls should not be used for
trading, except when there is a switch from the previous Buy or Sell call. They
give the general market health only.)
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352 for a ½% gain on the S&P 500. Not
much, but the NTSM analysis was never designed for a 10% correction that we
experienced.
I now have a 50% stock
allocation overall. For my age, that is
what most advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I have less invested in stocks now because
there’s a lot of risk.
With so many indicators
that I watch in positive territory, I am still considering moving back into the
market to 100% invested – a truly crazy, risky position, but I am a risk
taker. I may wait for a better buying
opportunity or move in toward the end of the month since my 401k only allows
3-moves per month and the last move must be “all-out”. Moving in at the end of the month of August
leaves more options for September.
