Friday, August 31, 2012

The Ben Effect

I’m posting a little early due to a busy evening; but first, a scientific achievement.

Lawrence Livermore Laboratories has discovered the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (Gv) , has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons.

Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 - 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places. In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes.  Sadly true...

MARKET RECAP
Many said today was the Ben effect, i.e., the market was up on hopes the Fed will initiate QE3.  It was certainly a switch from yesterday's down day.
                                                                                                    
Here are the preliminary Friday numbers.  Friday the S&P 500 finished UP 1/2% to 1407 (rounded).  VIX fell 1.5% to 17.56.   

NTSM
I don’t have all of the final data, but I don’t think the final will be much different.  The preliminary NTSM analysis remained HOLD Friday.

The NTSM system is beating the S&P 500 by ½% for 2012.  Not much, but 89% of all hedge funds are underperforming the S&P 500 this year (per CNBC) so it could be worse. (NTSM was up 78% from 2006-2011 while the S&P 500 was essentially flat.)

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6 July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500 1352. 

I now have a 50% stock allocation overall.  For my age, that is what most advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I am normally much more aggressive.  I have less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
 
ENJOY THE WEEKEND!