“1) Panic in hedge fund
land: Massive underperformance argues for chasing returns. The S&P 500 is
up 14 percent this year. How many hedge funds are up 14 percent this year? Not
many. According to BarclayHedge, only 81 out of 736 long/short equity hedge
funds they track were beating the S&P 500 as of the end of July. That's 11 percent. As we
roll into September, that kind of stat will begin to evoke mild panic in hedge
fund land.” Full blog at…
The Navigate the Stock
Market (NTSM) blog is beating the S&P 500 by only ½% (on 1-trade) so far
this year, but that seems to be a lot better than the hedge funds!!!
NEW HIGH PREDICTION
NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Wall
Street hit a four-year high on Tuesday as equity markets continue to grind
steadily higher on hopes that central banks will act in the near future to
stimulate their economies...'I am looking for new highs in the major
indexes,' said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas
Financial in New York. 'Overall there is no one major negative that's out
there right now that people are scared of'...Yields at a Spanish
short-term debt auction dived on Tuesday, while Europe's volatility index
VSTOXX (.V2TX) hit a one-month low, signaling a steady rise in investors' appetite
for risk."
I’ll get very nervous if
the market makes it back to the 1550 area; but I won’t complain!
MARKET
RECAP
Tuesday the S&P 500
finished down 0.35% to 1413 (rounded).
VIX rose over 7% to 15.02.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained BUY at the close on Tuesday. (The NTSM analysis is designed to call a BUY or SELL at the bottom or top respectively. A BUY at this point is less significant than it would be at a bottom. For that reason, the daily Buy/Sell/or Hold calls should not be used for trading, except when there is a switch from the previous Buy or Sell call. They give the general market health only.)
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352. I now have a 50% stock allocation
overall. For my age, that is what most
advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I have less invested in stocks now because
there’s a lot of risk.
With so many indicators
that I watch in positive territory, I am considering moving back into the
market to 100% invested – a truly crazy, risky position, but I am a risk
taker. I may wait for a better buying opportunity
or move in toward the end of the month since my 401k only allows 3-moves per
month and the last move must be “all-out”.
Moving in at the end of the month of August leaves more options for
September.
