“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
My cmt: CO2 emissions peaked in 2007. Is the rest of the world cutting emissions? Nope.
We will sacrifice our economy, along with the welfare of the poor, to the alter
of zero emissions. As noted yesterday, “... the US is only 13 percent of global
emissions. And even if we went to zero, it would be wiped out by the growth in
the rest of the world within a decade.” - Steven Koonin, PhD.
“...the editors of these journals [Nature, Science and
others] have made it abundantly clear, both by what they publish and what they
reject, that they want climate papers that support certain preapproved
narratives—even when those narratives come at the expense of broader knowledge
for society...To put it bluntly, climate science has become less about
understanding the complexities of the world and more about serving as a kind of
Cassandra, urgently warning the public about the dangers of climate change.
However understandable this instinct may be, it distorts a great deal of
climate science research, misinforms the public, and most importantly, makes
practical solutions more difficult to achieve.” Parick T Brown, PhD climate scientist and co-director of the
Climate and Energy Team at The Breakthrough Institute. Story at...
I
Left Out the Full Truth to Get My Climate Change Paper Published | The Free
Press (thefp.com)
FED BEIGE BOOK(Yahoo Finance)
“There are signs that wage growth and inflation may soon
slow further, according to a new report out Wednesday from the Federal Reserve.
The Fed’s Beige Book revealed Wednesday that businesses in several districts struggled
during August to pass on costs to consumers, as costs of making goods are
growing faster than prices... Most districts reported price growth slowed
overall, decelerating faster specifically in manufacturing and consumer goods
sectors.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-beige-book-inflation-wage-growth-will-slow-later-this-year-185313947.html
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX (Yahoo Finance)
“A key gauge of U.S. economic activity showed business
was still robust in February, but suggested that companies are fast losing
their pricing power as inflation squeezes household and corporate budgets. The non-manufacturing index compiled by the Institute of
Supply Management inched down to 55.1...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ism-non-manufacturing-pmi-still-105054492.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.7% to 4465.
-VIX rose about 3% to 14.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.304%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 7.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 420-days.
The S&P 500 is 8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.2% BELOW
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5. Caterpillar is the #1 momentum play on
the Dow, but I am suspicious of their earnings.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 is retesting its 50-dMA. Today it dropped a little below the 50-day
and some will say that that is a failure.
I don’t place much faith in the exact number. It seems to me that the Index frequently
drops below key support levels only to be followed by upward movement in the
ensuing days.
Currently, several indicators have flipped to bearish,
but the overall total is still well to the bullish side. I like to check my Money
Trend indicator. Money Trend is up, but just barely. Sentiment is still overly
bearish by my measures and that’s a bullish sign. I expect markets to improve.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +4 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +23 to +24.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remains
HOLD: PRICE & SENTIMENT are Bullish; VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: Given the indicators, I remain Bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
