FED Decision ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
GEORGE SOROS FINANCES PROPAGANDA (NY Post)
“Billionaire Democratic donor George Soros is financing an army of Gen-Z TikTokers to push his extreme left-wing causes, praise President Joe Biden, and bash conservatives, a review of public documents and social media by The Post shows. 
Soros’ Open Society Foundation shelled out $5.5 million to the nonprofit Accelerate Action Inc. in 2020 and 2021 — which in turn gave at least $300,000 in 2022 to another nonprofit, Gen Z for Change, which boasts a network of 500 “activists, organizers, and creators,” tax filings show.” Story at...
Joe Biden's 'TikTok Army' funded by George Soros (nypost.com)
 
“Canada's Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion (TMX), which will nearly triple the flow of crude from Alberta to Canada's Pacific Coast beginning early next year, will shake up North America's supply by diverting barrels now mainly delivered to refiners and exporters in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. Its startup could add as much as $2 per barrel to prices paid by U.S. Midwest oil refineries...” From...
Canada's Trans Mountain pipe expansion to disrupt oil flow to US, boost prices (msn.com)
My cmt: Joe Biden cancelled the Keystone Pipeline so the Canadians built their own. It will bypass US refiners - lost jobs, higher fuel prices, more inflation. - Thanks, Joe.
 
“The United States has hit a new milestone that no one will be proud of: our gross national debt just surpassed $33 trillion.” -  Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
 My cmt: $330,000 for every taxpayer.

“One of the most insulting and infuriating things in American politics is the financial tyranny inflicted upon us by the geriatric elites. These people have squatted in public office for decades, amassing massive wealth from lobbyists, Super PACs, and tax dollars, while the average American feels the pain of inflation and watches their savings dwindle. Apparently, 50 years of “public service” is not enough for some of these people, and they stubbornly refuse to pass the torch, even though they are no longer fit for service. Elected officials like Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell exhibit regular and very public episodes of embarrassing disorientation, mental confusion, and stroke symptoms. These men, and others like them (like Diane Feinstein and John Fetterman) are not well enough to be left alone in the house all day. How are they well enough to govern our lives and spend our tax dollars? The Libertarian National Committee is doing the responsible thing: we are filing for conservatorship of Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell.” - Angela McArdle, Libertarian National Committee Chair. From...
https://www.lp.org/lnc-seeks-to-protect-america-with-conservatorships-for-president-joe-biden-and-senate-minority-leader-mitch-mcconnell/
 
“As we get older, and wiser, we slowly realize that wearing a $300 or $30 watch both give the same time.
Whether we have a $300 or $30 wallet or purse, the amount inside is the same.
Whether we drive a $150,000 car or a $30,000 car, the road and the distance are the same, and we reach the same destination.
Whether we drink a $1000 or $10 bottle of wine, the hangover is the same.
Whether the house in which we live is 100 or 1000 square meters, loneliness is the same.
You will realize that your true inner happiness does not come from material things of this world.
Whether you travel first class or economy class, if the plane crashes, you go down with it...
Therefore, I hope you realize, when you have friends, brothers and sisters, with whom you discuss, laugh, talk, sing, talk about north-south-east or heaven and earth,... this is the real happiness!!
An indisputable fact of life:
Don't raise your children to be rich.
Educate them to be happy.
When they grow up, they will know the value of things and not the price.”
-Steve Jobs, co-founder, chairman, and CEO of Apple; the chairman and majority shareholder of Pixar; a member of The Walt Disney Company's board of directors following its acquisition of Pixar; and the founder, chairman, and CEO of NeXT. 
 
FED RATE DECISION (CNN Business)
“-US stocks were lower Wednesday as traders parsed a key rate announcement from the Federal Reserve that indicated at least one more hike this year.
-The central bank opted to hold rates steady for now as it takes a beat to review the state of the economy.
-Wall Street investors sold off stocks a bit after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the US economy was not out of the woods, and a recession remained a possibility...
‘...I wouldn't attribute huge importance to one hike in macroeconomic terms,’ said Powell. ‘Nonetheless, we need to get to a place where we're confident that we have a stance that will bring inflation down to 2% over time.’" Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/markets-fed-meeting-september/index.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 418.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Story at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
My cmt: This suggests strong demand and sustained high prices.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.9% to 4402.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.411%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 430-days.
The S&P 500 is 5.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.8% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

The FED spoke and the markets did not like it. The S&P 500 had been in a holding pattern until the FED announcement. Before the announcement market internals looked great – that didn’t last either, as market internals mirrored the weak price action. Now the Index is threatening to test its 100-day moving average.  It’s about ½ % above the 100-day now.
 
The indicators are not indicating it’s time to sell so I am hanging on.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -7 to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -35 to -37. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remains HOLD: PRICE, SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: Until indicators say otherwise, I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.