GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Durable Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
ELECTRIC VEHICLES NOT SO ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY AFTER ALL (msn.com)
“...new information has emerged that suggests electric vehicles may not be as environmentally friendly as we originally thought... According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, 31% of all carbon dioxide emissions in the United States come from gas or diesel-powered vehicles... in order to build the batteries of these electric vehicles and the infrastructure needed for them to function, an almost obscene amount of copper needs to be mined...
... According to one study entitled “Copper mining and vehicle electrification,” the world would need to produce 115% more copper than has been mined in human history... And researchers at the University of Michigan reported.... “Copper cannot be mined quickly enough to keep up with current U.S. policy guidelines to transition the country's electricity and vehicle infrastructure to renewable energy.” ... Copper mining is exceedingly bad for the environment for three major reasons: Land degradation, deforestation, and water pollution...
...if the president wants his plan to come to fruition, he will have to address the copper problem very soon... At this moment in time, even if companies wanted to follow the president’s EV mandate, they would not have enough copper to do so. 
New Study Says Electric Vehicles Are Not as Environmentally Friendly as We Thought (msn.com)
 
NET ZERO WILL MAKE YOU POORER AND CHINA RICHER (The Telegraph)
“Time has not been kind to the foolish idea that climate change was humanity’s sole remaining problem – or that the planet would unite to solve it. Geopolitics and economics mean a rapid global transition from fossil fuels is impossible.
As has long been clear for many, the majority of the world never shared this myopic focus on climate change. Despite immense progress, in some countries life remains a battle against poverty, hunger, and disease...  China’s growth has relied on burning ever more coal. It is the world’s preeminent greenhouse gas emitter, with the largest increase of any nation last year... The reality is that most of the world – including powerhouse India and emerging economies – will continue to focus on becoming richer, often with fossil fuels... China will make money from selling the West solar panels and electric cars, while only modestly curbing its own emissions... The world needs a better way forward. The best solution is not to push people to be worse off by forcing a premature transition from fossil fuels to inadequate green alternatives. Instead, we should ramp up investments in green innovation, eventually driving down the cost of clean energy to be cheaper than fossil fuels... Rich countries need to wake up and stop hemorrhaging trillions in self-inflicted climate policies that will be followed by few, laughed at by many, and will mainly make China rich.” Story at...  
Net zero will only make you poorer and China richer (msn.com)
 
NEW REASON TO PLANT TREES (yahoo.com)
“Tree bark absorbs significant methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Methane has 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over two decades. Trees' methane absorption could be twice that of Arctic permafrost emissions... "We've been undervaluing trees for their climate benefits," Vincent Gauci, a professor at the University of Birmingham and the lead author of the study, told Business Insider. "This is a new nature-based climate solution." Story at...
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/scientists-found-groundbreaking-reason-plant-132411892.html
 
GOVTRAK, HARRIS SCORECARD DISAPPEARS FROM THE INTERNET (Western Journal)
“...many in the establishment media and other institutions capable of holding her [Kamala Harris] accountable appear more willing to revise history to protect her than offer any criticism to flourish... ‘These year-end statistics cover [Harris'] record during the 2019 legislative year (Jan 3, 2019-Dec 31, 2019) and compare her to other senators serving at the end of that period,’ an archived version of the post reads, adding it was last updated in 2020. What the scorecard revealed is damning for Harris' hopes of presenting herself as anything other than a radically partisan candidate. Compared to all senators, GovTrack ranked her as the "most politically left." Story at...
Congressional Scorecard Site Purges Damning Page on Kamala Harris (msn.com)
My cmt: For specifics read yesterday’s blog (24 July). She is far left, as one would expect from a San Francisco, California Politician.
 
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured, does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice
 
GDP (Yahoo Finance)
“The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of second quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% during the period, well above the 2% growth expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-faster-than-expected-pace-in-second-quarter-as-inflation-eases-123158542.html
My cmt: I saw where some partisan talking head was claiming the GDP number was wrong. Just read the definition of GDP above. With Government spending out of control, it is not surprising that GDP is going up.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“Jobless claims for the week ending July 20 fell by 10,000 to 235,000 from 245,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday... though they have been slightly higher the past couple of months, they remain at historically healthy levels.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/fewer-americans-file-jobless-claims-applications-remain-elevated-112263924
 
DURABLE ORDERS (Morningstar News)
“Orders for durable goods fell 6.6% in June, the Commerce Department said Thursday. It is the sharpest drop since the pandemic... Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders were up 0.5%.” Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240725277/durable-goods-orders-plummeted-in-june-but-one-sector-was-largely-to-blame
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 5399.
-VIX rose about 2% to 18.46. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.244% (compared to this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) fell to 17 Bear-signs and 7-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread slipped from -6 to -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Around mid-day today markets were looking good.  When I checked indicators, surprisingly, they did not agree. The indicators are suggesting this pullback is not over and the markets faded in the afternoon. Breadth looks good though, so I still don’t see a big correction. Based on indicators, about all we can say is that the prediction for correction was less than 10% and I haven’t seen anything that would change that thought. There were signs the pullback is getting closer to an end.
 
Bollinger Bands were oversold and that’s a good sign. RSI was not oversold and there were no other Bottom Indicators that are currently suggesting a bottom, so indicators are not calling a bottom.
 
As noted yesterday, Steve Grasso, on CNBC’s Fast Money show thought that the S&P 500 needed to drop to its 200-dMA.
 
The S&P 500 is 8.5% above its 200-dMA and 0.6% Below its 50-dMA. I’ll look to see if there is follow-thru tomorrow. We’d like to avoid consecutive closes below the 50-dMA since that might suggest more declines to come. Tomorrow is important in that respect. Traders like to watch the 50-dMA and a further break lower could trigger more selling.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained SELL: PRICE, VOLUME, & VIX are bearish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
This always raises a question, should I sell? That depends mostly on whether I am predicting a big correction or a more normal pullback. Breadth going into this decline was good, so I do not expect a big correction.  Therefore, I won’t sell.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral to Bullish on the market; the pullback we have been experiencing may be close to ending, but no confirmation yet.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is slightly above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.