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“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The organizational unsteadiness of Ms. Harris’s campaign reflects a longtime personal trait, according to allies: she is a candidate who seeks input from a stable of advisers, but her personal political convictions can be unclear...To some Democrats who know Ms. Harris, her struggles indicate larger limitations. ‘You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign...” – NY Times, November 2019.
 
WHAT HARRIS BELIEVES – EXCERPTED & PARAPHRASED (WSJ)
...the views of a California progressive as reported by WSJ.
As California Attorney General and US Senator from California:
1. She sponsored a bill to create a $6,000 guaranteed income for families making up to $100,000.
2. She proposed a refundable tax credit capping rents and utility payments at 30% of income.
3.She co-sponsored legislation with Bernie Sanders to pay tuition at four-year public colleges for students from families making up to $125,000.
4. She co-sponsored Medicare-for-All legislation with Bernie Sanders.
5. She endorsed a nationwide ban on oil and gas fracking.
6. She investigated Exxon Mobil over its carbon emissions
7. “...Mr. Biden famously put Ms. Harris in charge of border policy... Rather than push for border policy changes [she blamed] the rush of migrants on “root causes” in developing countries, including corruption, violence, poverty and “lack of climate adaptation and climate resilience.” ...
8. “...She lambasted the Trump Administration for killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, claiming it could lead to bigger war in the Mideast. The killing chastened Iran’s rulers instead, at least until the Biden Administration began to ease sanctions and tried to repeat the 2015 nuclear deal... A fair conclusion from all of this is that Ms. Harris is a standard California progressive on most issues, often to the left of Mr. Biden.” Opinion at... 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-kamala-harris-believes-c1136006?mod=opinion_leadstories_bullet
And then there’s Israel’s war against Hamas...
“When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris won’t be there... the snub is unmistakable. It is fueling rumors of a rift between the Harris and Biden approaches to the Middle East.” – WSJ. From...
https://www.google.com/search?q=Kamala+Harris+on+GAZa+&sca_esv=76c8920d8a4a7859&sca_upv=1&source=hp&ei=CzmhZqPIK8Cv5NoP5pC6iA4&iflsig=AL9hbdgAAAAAZqFHG3GywA8gdiZHAJ1SdDmpb29_Q3Fk&ved=0ahUKEwjj-cuFmcCHAxXAF1kFHWaIDuEQ4dUDCBc&uact=5&oq=Kamala+Harris+on+GAZa+&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IhZLYW1hbGEgSGFycmlzIG9uIEdBWmEgSJSMAVAAWOuCAXAAeACQAQCYAXCgAekMqgEEMjEuMbgBA8gBAPgBAZgCDqAC5wjCAgsQLhiABBixAxiDAcICERAuGIAEGLEDGNEDGIMBGMcBwgIOEC4YgAQYsQMYgwEYigXCAggQLhiABBixA8ICDhAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGIoFwgIFEC4YgATCAgsQLhiABBjRAxjHAcICBRAAGIAEwgILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwHCAg0QLhiABBixAxiDARgKwgINEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYCsICEBAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGIoFGArCAhAQLhiABBixAxiDARgKGIoFwgIHEAAYgAQYCpgDAJIHBDEzLjGgB9KaAQ&sclient=gws-wiz
My cmt: Harris has emphasized civilian suffering in Gaza strongly hinting at a departure from existing Biden Israeli policy toward a more accommodating support of Palestine.
 
In Harris’s first campaign rally she said, “she sees a future where ‘every worker has the freedom to join a union,’ and ‘every person has affordable health care, affordable child care, and paid family leave,’ and ‘every senior can retire with dignity.’” From WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kamala-harris-steers-to-the-left-5f195c79?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
My cmt: “Freedom to join a union” probably means that she supports doing away with right-to-work laws that allow employees to work without joining a union. She has taken that position in the past.
 
My conclusion: Holy cr$p! She makes Old Joe look like William F. Buckley. It doesn’t matter much to me whether she repudiates these positions. I accept her actions, not her statements. Biden ran on moderation, but governed from the left. Harris’s statements at her first campaign rally indicate she is running left. She may govern left of left.
 
“Neither side can win without the sensible, moderate middle. They can’t do it. But yet, no one’s going in that direction.” – Joe Manchin, Senator (I), West Virginia.
My cmt: The irony? Democrats could win easily with Manchin as their candidate, but the Democrat party has shifted far left and forced him out of the party.
 
NEW HOME SALES (Reuters)
“New home sales slipped 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,000 units last month, the lowest level since November... Sales slumped 7.4% on a year-on-year basis in June.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-new-home-sales-fall-seven-month-low-june-2024-07-24/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 2.3% to 5427.
-VIX jumped about 23% to 18.04. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.285% (compared to this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) fell to 14 Bear-signs and 9-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread was -5 (5 more Bear indicator then Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Panic Indicator flashed today.  One problem with this indicator is figuring out if it is a bear or bull warning.  I generally treat it as Bearish if the S&P 500 is near its top and Bullish if it appears to be at a bottom. The Index is not oversold for the Bollinger Bands or Relative Strength Index and none of my Top/Bottom indicators are calling a bottom. Still, the Index did close on its 50-dMA and its lower trend line, so for now, I think that today was a panic bottom.  
 
Steve Grasso, on CNBC’s Fast Money show, is calling for a fall below the 50-dMA and he predicted a drop to the 200-dMA, another 7% lower than today’s close on the S&P 500. His argument is very plausible and he may be right, but breadth still looks good and that suggests this pullback is nearing or at an end. I don’t have great conviction here. Small pullbacks give small signals so calling a bottom for small pullbacks is mostly guesswork.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to SELL: PRICE is bearish, VOLUME, & VIX are bearish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
This always raises a question, should I sell? That depends mostly on whether I am predicting a big correction or a more normal pullback. Breadth going into this decline was good, so I do not expect a big correction.  Therefore, I won’t sell.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Neutral to Bullish on the market; the pullback we have been experiencing may be over – let’s see if we get confirmation soon.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is slightly above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.