Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Make no mistake: JD Vance will be loyal only to Trump, not to our country...” – Kamala Harris,  VP.
 
“Now, I saw the other day Kamala Harris questioned my loyalty to this country. That’s the word she used; loyalty. And it’s an interesting word. Semper Fi: loyalty, because there is no greater sign of disloyalty to this country than what Kamala Harris has done at our southern border. And I’d like to ask the vice president, what has she done to question my loyalty to this country? I served in the United States Marine Corps. I went to Iraq for this country. I built a business for this country...” – JD Vance at a Minnesota campaign rally. 
 
My cmt: Harris and Trump: Possibly the two worst candidates in US history. 
 
“For a film populated by scientists and clued-in citizens to not mention climate change is a little like the twisters themselves: there’s a hole at the center.” - Thomas Page, CNN writer commenting on the movie “Twisters.”
My cmt: Just a reminder...
TORNADOES AND GLOBAL WARMING (National Geographic)
“There is no real evidence that tornadoes are happening more often. A lot more are being recorded now than in 1950, but a closer look at the data shows the increase is only in the weakest category, EF0. There's been no increase in stronger twisters, and maybe even a slight decrease in EF4s and EF5s. That suggests we're just spotting more of the weak and short-lived tornadoes than we did back when the country was emptier (the United States population in 1950 was less than half what it is now), we didn't have Doppler radar, and Oklahoma highways weren't jammed with storm-chasers.”  Story at...
https://www.nationalgeographic.org/article/tornadoes-and-global-warming-there-connection/
Unfortunately, the media doesn’t report the truth and many reporters may not even know the truth.  Global Warming is real, the earth’s temperature has increased 1 degree centigrade in the last 100-years, primarily due to man-made greenhouse gasses, but the media blames every extreme weather event on Global Warming.
 
“In 2022, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions totaled 6,343 million metric tons (14.0 trillion pounds) of carbon dioxide equivalents. This total represents a 3.0 percent decrease since 1990... From 1990 to 2022, greenhouse gas emissions per dollar of goods and services produced by the U.S. economy (the gross domestic product or GDP) declined by 55 percent” – EPA. 
 
Ironically, decreases in particulate pollution (cleaner air) has increased warming.
“A study published... in the journal Geophysical Research Letters suggests that eliminating the human emission of aerosols—tiny, air-polluting particles often released by industrial activities—could result in additional global warming of anywhere from half a degree to 1 degree Celsius.” – Scientific American, Jan 2018.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cleaning-up-air-pollution-may-strengthen-global-warming/#:~:text=A%20study%20published%20this%20month,degree%20to%201%20degree%20Celsius.
 
CONVINCE A CONSPIRACY-THEORY BELIEVER THEY’RE WRONG? DON’T START WITH THE TRUTH (LA Times)
“...Consider baby boomers, who share an alarming amount of fake news online. Many people believe that some mix of cognitive aging, poor digital literacy and too much Fox News is to blame. But this overlooks a bigger issue. Conspiracy-theory-entranced seniors have described to me how, before adopting a QAnon-like brand of what some called “activism,” they felt as if society no longer valued or had use for them. Facing what experts have identified as an “epidemic of loneliness,” they yearned for purpose, community and fulfillment.” – Jessely Cook, opinion at...
Opinion: Want to convince a conspiracy theory believer they're wrong? Don't start with the truth (msn.com)
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5464.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.60. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.171% (compared to this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
XLK – added more 7/26. This reestablishes the position I had before this recent weakness.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market (TSM) Index, a broad market index made up of stocks of U.S. companies not included in the S&P 500 Index. – Added 7/29/2024
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread count was 14 Bear-signs and 8-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 10-dMA of the 50-indicator spread (purple line in the chart above) slipped to zero.  I said that when that stat starts moving up, I’ll add to stocks. On further consideration, I decided to add to stocks today. Breadth still looks good and the S&P 500 was still above its lower trend line.
 
Markets are waiting for big-tech to report earnings and for the Fed to speak.  The expectation is that they will signal a future Fed rate decrease at the next Fed meeting in September. If they don’t, it may push markets back into pullback mode. 
 
Joe Terranova mentioned on CNBC’s Halftime Report that it seemed a little too pat that the S&P 500 dropped exactly to its 50-dMA. He was concerned that there may be more to come in the pullback. I have suggested it is mostly over. We’ll see...
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to SELL: PRICE and VOLUME were bearish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
This always raises a question, should I sell? That depends mostly on whether I am predicting a big correction or a more normal pullback. Breadth going into this decline was good, so I do not expect a big correction.  Therefore, I won’t sell.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am Bullish on the market, but I’ll feel better when the 10-dMA of indicators moves higher. I may have gotten too far ahead of my indicators.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is slightly above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.