“Earl Ingram, ["The Earl Ingram Show," aimed at
Black listeners in Wisconsin] asked Biden to ‘speak to some accomplishments
that we may or may not be familiar with about your record.’ Biden’s response:
...“You need someone, someone who is going to make sure
that -- the Supreme Court just issued a decision, by the way, that threatens
the American principle that we have no kings in America... There’s no one above
the law. That’s where we always -- we gave Donald Trump executive -- a power
to, to use a system -- and it’s just never contemplated by our founders because
of the people he appointed to the court. It’s just presidential immunity. He
can say that I did this in my capacity as an executive, it may have been wrong,
but I did it, But that’s going to hold -- because I -- and this is the same guy
who says that he wants to enact revenge.” From...
He
Finally Did It: Biden Gives Most Disjointed Answer We've Ever Heard (msn.com)
“President Biden defiantly and
repeatedly rejected calls for him to withdraw from the presidential race...” –
WSJ
My cmt: My elderly father “defiantly and forcefully
rejected” my family’s requests that he stop driving. That didn’t stop us from
taking his keys to the car.
“You can’t successfully run for president of the United
States when your campaign slogan is, ‘I’m only senile some of the time,’ as one
commentator pointed out today.” - Sen. John Kennedy, Republican, Louisiana.
Biden campaign song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPPDehYZkoE
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached the
highest reading of the year in June at 91.5, a one-point increase from last
month. The last time the index was higher was in December of 2023 when it
reached 91.9. Even so, this marks the 30th month below the historical average
of 98. Inflation is still the top small business issue, with 21% of owners
reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their
business, down one point from May.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5577, a new,
all-time high.-VIX rose about 1% to 12.51. (The Options Players are
nervous.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.303%
(compared to this time yesterday).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) reversed to a mildly bearish 13 Bear-signs and 11-Bull. (The rest
are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of
those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The
10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below also reversed downward, a bearish
sign.
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread declined from +8 to -2
(2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
In addition to the bearish Rising Wedge (shown in red in
the chart above) there were a few more worrisome bear-signs that popped up
today.
Tuesday there was another Hindenburg Omen. Investopedia
says, “The Hindenburg Omen is a technical
indicator that was designed to signal the increased probability of
a stock market
crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in
stock prices to a predetermined reference percentage that is supposed to
predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash...
The Hindenburg Omen looks for a statistical deviation from the premise that
under normal conditions, some stocks are either making new 52-week highs or new
52-week lows. It would be abnormal if both were occurring at the same time.”
From Investopedia at...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp
As we’ve noted before, the Omen sends a lot of false
warnings.
One simple way to judge overbought conditions is to count
the number of up-days in a given period. For example, as of Tuesday there have
been 9 up-days in the last 10 trading sessions. That’s a bearish sign of over-exuberance.
Repeating: We had prior warnings of a 10% decline. That
signal is less certain now. The S&P 500 made another new, all-time high
today (Tuesday) while the number of issues making new, 52-week-highs on the
NYSE improved and remained above my bearish threshold. There are still worries there (as previously
noted), but if this improvement continues it would cancel, or at least
postpone, this worrisome indicator. If a correction were to start now, my guess
is that it would be around 8-10%. We still have signs warning of a
pullback.
The S&P 500 is 13.8% above the 200-dMA and that
remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
Repeating: Statistical analysis of daily moves is
indicating that the daily moves have gotten too predictably small, a sign of
complacency. This suggests a top within the next 20-days. The last time we saw
this indicator was at the 31 July top last year. That was followed by a 10%
correction.
Breadth measured on differed time-frames remains Bullish,
but it has been slipping recently.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE, VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator.
It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
No change: I am Neutral on the market. If the Rising
Wedge pattern on the S&P 500 is to be believed, and if it doesn’t breakout
higher, the pattern would resolve around the end of the month signaling the
start of a pullback.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is normal invested position. (75%
is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
