... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
Adidas Apologizes (Irish Star)
“Sportswear behemoth Adidas has been forced to say sorry after copping flak for featuring Bella Hadid in a sneaker ad... The launch of their fresh SL 72 trainers, originally crafted for the 1972 Munich Olympics athletes, has sparked an online backlash... Eleven Israelis were murdered by Palestinian terrorists during the Munich Olympics. ‘Guess who the face of their campaign is? Bella Hadid, a half-Palestinian model who has a history of spreading antisemitism and calling for violence against Israelis and Jews," they [the Israeli Government] said...’” Story at...
Adidas apologizes after Bella Hadid's involvement in controversial Olympics ad (msn.com)
My cmt: Unbelievable, but I guess there’s no one at Adidas old enough to remember 1972 and they don’t teach terrorist history in schools. This follows on the heels of the WSJ reporting today that the nation’s number one beer, Bud Light, is now number 3 due to their disastrous ad campaign featuring a trans spokesman.
 
“'Caitlyn Clark last night had 19 assists in a game to set a league record. She's a rookie on a bad team and has scored or assisted on 66 points—71% of the Fever's points. That's the most ever in league history. She's breaking records every week... However, despite her status as one of the league's elite guards, Clark was not even invited to compete in the All-Star Skills Competition. She didn't make the three-point shooting contest. You argued she wasn't good for the Olympics because she would be a distraction. But isn't the perfect place to put her in the skills competition where she's one of the best three-point shooters and a highly skilled player? So now, what is it? Pettiness? Gatekeeping? Insular? Dumb?’" – Colin Cowherd, American sports media host.
My cmt: Rascist?
 
TRUMP LIES AGAIN – WHAT’S NEW? (CNN)
“Former President Donald Trump accepted the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday with the most dishonest speech of the four-day Republican National Convention, making more than 20 false claims by CNN’s count. Many of the false claims were ones Trump has made before, some of them for years. They spanned a wide variety of topics, including the economy, immigration, crime, foreign policy and elections. Some of them were wild lies, others smaller exaggerations. Some were in his prepared text (like the absurd claim that he left the Biden administration a world at peace), while he ad-libbed others (such as his usual lies that Democrats cheated in the 2020 election and that the US is experiencing the worst inflation it has ever had).” Commentary at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/18/politics/fact-checking-night-4-republican-national-convention-trump/index.html
-        "The liar's punishment is not in the least that he is not believed but that he cannot believe anyone else"- George Bernard Shaw.
 
-        “Never believe anything a politician tells you about himself. A man comes to believe in the end the lies he tells himself about himself.” - Paraphrased from George Bernard Shaw.
 
“Frankly, it [Trump’s RNC acceptance] was a long speech. It was a rambling speech. It was a speech by an older man and I couldn’t help but think that the people that are going to be happiest tonight are not the people at Trump headquarters, but the people, the Democrats, maybe at Biden headquarters.” – Chris Wallace, CNN.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 5505.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.52. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.242% (compared to this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) fell to a Neutral 12 Bear-signs and 12-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread fell from +10 to Zero (Equal Bull & Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators declined from a strong bullish indication to Neutral. We’ve seen moves this big before, but we can’t be happy about the decline.
 
The S&P 500 has dropped about 3% from its recent all-time high and that is 1.8% above its 50-dma. We can probably expect another 2-4% decline, but often, the S&P 500 doesn’t retreat all the way to its 50-day. There’s no guarantee that we’ll see even another 2% decline. Still, investors may worry over the weekend and start Monday selling.  We might look for a turn-around Monday or Tuesday. (How’s that for some seriously wishy-washy commentary?) We’ll see. A quick turn-around may be too much to hope for.
 
On a positive note: Breadth remains strong; Money Trend is bullish; McClellan Oscillator is in positive territory; and the XLU -S&P 500 spread remains bullish.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to SELL: PRICE & VIX are bearish; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
This always raises a question, should I sell? That depends mostly on whether I am predicting a big correction or a more normal pullback. Breadth going into this decline was good, so I do not expect a big correction.  Therefore, I won’t sell.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am still Neutral to Bearish on the market; the pullback we have been expecting appears to be here now.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is slightly above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.