Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
TRUMP FAKED THE ASSASSINATION??!! (Fox News)
“If some polls are to be believed, one in three Democrats think that Donald Trump faked his own assassination attempt. When I read that, I thought, could this possibly be true? But this weekend on my drive home to West Virginia from the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, I got the theory first hand... I met Mark..."That whole thing was a setup," Mark told me... They paid off the family, or maybe told him he’d get off with just a few years in jail, he suggested. "And the death of Corey Comperatore?" I asked, referring to the retired fire chief who died shielding his family from the assassin's bullets. ‘Donald Trump doesn’t care if his supporters die,’ Mark shot back, quite certain of himself.” Story at...
1 in 3 Democrats believe Trump faked assassination attempt. I talked to one (msn.com)
My cmt: Unbelievable! 33% of Democrats are total nitwits?
 
“...when asked if they would vote for Trump if he were ‘currently serving time in prison,’ 28%...would.” – From...
Survey Reveals Split Among Republicans Regarding Support for Trump Amid Legal Troubles (msn.com)
My cmt: 28% would vote for Trump if he were serving time? ...Proving once and for all that 28% of Republicans are complete idiots...and I am a conservative. I voted for Trump last time – never again! But to the subject at hand...
 
Add them together: 33% think Trump faked the assassination + 28% would vote for Trump even if he was in jail =  61% of the people in this country are bat-sh*t crazy? Fortunately, the math doesn’t work that way.
 
Let’s assume that 1/3 of the public are Democrats; 1/3 are Republicans; and 1/3 are Independents. Then the numbers of looney people in the electorate works out as follows:
1/3 x 33% + 1/3 x 28% =  11% + 9% = 20%
That’s still scary. 20% of people in the US electorate, or 1 in 5, are bat-sh*t crazy.
 
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.” -  Henry Ford
 
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein.
 
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." – George Carlin
 
“The problem isn't that Johnny can't read. The problem isn't even that Johnny can't think. The problem is that Johnny doesn't know what thinking is; he confuses it with feeling.” - Thomas Sowell
 
STRANGE NEW WORLD OF TUCKER CARLSON (WSJ)
“During the lawsuit filed by the voting-machine company Dominion against Fox for its reporting of election fraud in the 2020 election, Carlson’s private messages to executives were made public in court documents. In them he vehemently rejected the election-fraud conspiracy that he repeatedly aired on his show and said he loathed President Trump, calling him a “demonic force.” From...
https://www.wsj.com/politics/inside-the-strange-new-world-of-tucker-carlson-09783fc8
 
HANNITY SAYS HE KNEW ALL ALONG TRUMP LOST IN 2020 (NPR)
“Fox News star Sean Hannity – one of former President Donald Trump's strongest allies on the air and one of his closest advisers off it – admitted under oath that he never believed the lie that Trump was cheated of victory in the 2020 presidential election by a voting tech company... "I did not believe it for one second," Hannity testified...” Story at...
https://www.npr.org/2022/12/22/1144926308/fox-news-sean-hannity-dominion-lawsuit-trump
My cmt: Hannity and Carlson, the two biggest seditious, hypocritical-liars this country has ever seen, were responsible for convincing the uninformed that Trump won the 2020 election. A Democracy does not exist without fair and honest elections... and these two claim to be patriotic?
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (AP News)
“Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell 5.4% last month from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million, the fourth consecutive month of declines, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Existing home sales were also down 5.4% compared with June of last year.” Story at... 
https://apnews.com/article/housing-home-sales-real-estate-home-prices-d66607490a93fd51ac9074735261e440
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5556.
-VIX declined about 1% to 14.72. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.253% (compared to this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) are still Neutral at 12 Bear-signs and 12-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread was Zero (Equal Bear indicator and Bull indicators).

 TODAY’S COMMENT:

Today was a “bad look” day.  The day was lackluster and the close didn’t garner any confidence. The daily bull/bear spread was zero and the 10-dMA of the spread of the Bull-Bear indicators improved today but it is below its high 5 days ago so we can’t feel too good about the markets. However, it is not time to panic. Indicators remain neutral; Breadth looks good; and new-high/new-low data is strong. I will be able to get more bullish if the indicators turn up.
 

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to HOLD: PRICE is bearish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Summary of 50” indicator.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am still Neutral to Bearish on the market; the pullback we have been experiencing is probably not over yet.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched; my current stock position is slightly above the norm. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.