Consumer Confidence ... Dallas FED ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations... Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
DALLAS FED (Benzinga.com)
"The Dallas Fed released its April Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) on Monday. Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably. The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020.” Story at...
https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/45047682/texas-manufacturing-sentiment-worsens-to-lowest-reading-since-pandemic-from-tariff-driven-uncertainty
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5561.
-VIX dropped about 4% to 24.17.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.164% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign, but it has flipped a few times during this pullback.  Indicators continue to improve as we have seen for a while.
 
I will be busy for the rest of the week – I’ll still post, but perhaps with shorter posts and published later in the day.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. I added XLK and SPY Monday.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.