... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.
 
NEGOTIATIONS? WHAT NEGOTIATIONS? (RBC Ukraine)
“Beijing denied that it is nearing an agreement to resolve the trade war with the US and set a tough condition for the US, the Financial Times reports. China urged the US to "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" if it wishes to continue trade negotiations. Beijing also stated that "currently no economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States." Story at...
Negotiations at risk. China sets tough condition for US
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5525.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 24.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.255% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved +6 (6 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators) a Neutral indication - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign, but it has flipped a few times during this pullback.  Overall, though, indicators continue to improve and there were other significant bull signs.
 
The 50-indicator Spread finally moved into Bullish territory. My Long-Term indicator (a smaller basket of sensitive indicators) gave a BUY- signal today. I also noticed that there was a Zweig Breadth Thrust yesterday.  That is a rare BUY-signal based on a 10-day period of rapid, breadth improvement. I got fooled because the Breadth-thrust occurred in only 9-days and my calculations didn’t pick it up. (That may take some programming to fix.) I can also look back to the 90% up-volume day the day after the bottom as a buying signal, although it hadn’t been preceded by two 90% down-volume days. We also saw the S&P 500 break above the upper trendline and remain there for consecutive days.
 
The technicals support buying at this point. If we had gotten a retest I might have been able to call the bottom. The problem has been that this decline has been driven mostly by Trump’s Tariff antics - difficult to assess and nearly impossible to predict. In his Time magazine interviews, Trump said he would consider it a “total victory” if tariffs are as high as 50% a year from now. Markets moved higher on that news? That’s a bullish sign too, but it reminds us that even though we have technical Buy-signals, markets could still go south in a hurry.   
 
Markets could still retest the prior low, but the buy-signals suggest that it is unlikely to fall below the prior low unless there are legitimate recession fears.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. Time to buy some stocks.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

I plan to move to 50% invested Monday. My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.