National Activity Index ... Durable Orders ... Jobless Claims ... Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“...Preservation of Capital is still #1... Judging from price action, we are witnessing a turn away from US assets.” – Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello note, 14 April.
 
TRUMP UKRAINE ULTIMATUM (WSJ-excerpt)
“President Trump on Wednesday unleashed another broadside against Ukraine, and his dislike for President Volodymyr Zelensky isn’t news. But what matters to U.S. interests—and Mr. Trump’s Presidency—are the terms of a negotiated settlement. Mr. Trump’s current offer looks more like an ultimatum than grounds for a durable peace... Mr. Trump is angry that Ukraine won’t accept a deal that legitimizes Russia’s occupation of Crimea, as if this is a minor map revision. The U.S. refusal to credit territory seized by invasion is a principle intended to deter future marauders. Letting Russia keep its navy in Crimea is a threat to Europe as much as to Ukraine... Mr. Trump likes to say Ukraine doesn’t have the cards, but it does have one ace: The President won’t be able to abandon Ukraine without paying a heavy political price. As the historian and Stalin biographer Stephen Kotkin said in an interview recently, Americans hate war but they hate losing a war even more.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/russia-ukraine-settlement-donald-trump-ultimatum-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelensky-87eb20b8?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
 
“...Tariff proponents often contend that tariffs were the major source of revenue for the federal government during the 19th century. What they neglect to mention is that the federal government did next to nothing compared with what it does today. Consider the top five budget items Congress spends money on each year. Social Security wasn’t signed into law until 1935, interest payments on the national debt as well as defense spending were trivial compared with present levels, and Medicare and Medicaid wouldn’t appear until 1965. These five items alone account for nearly $5 trillion of the total $7 trillion that Congress is projected to spend this year.
It’s easy to pay for the government when the government does few things. - David Hebert, American Inst. for Economic Research. WSJ letters at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/when-tariffs-raked-in-revenue-for-washington-social-security-defense-healthcare-85ef8d02?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos7
 
NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators across four broad categories. The CFNAI is a forward-looking indicator that suggests how the economy will likely look in the near term and has been called one of the "most important and overlooked economic numbers". The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.03 in March from +0.24 in February.” Chats and analysis at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/24/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-decreased-march-2025
 
DURABLE GOODS (CNBC)
“Companies in March accelerated their orders for big-ticket long-lasting goods ahead of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on U.S. imports, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. So-called durable goods orders soared a seasonally adjusted 9.2% on the month...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/orders-for-big-ticket-items-like-autos-and-appliances-surged-9point2percent-in-march-in-rush-to-beat-tariffs.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“In the week through April 19 there were 222,000 initial jobless claims, compared with 216,000 a week earlier... Darkening economic sentiment as seen in surveys has raised concerns that consumers and businesses could pull back in the face of heightened policy uncertainty, potentially slowing the economy. But few hints of a slowdown have turned up in labor-market data so far.” Story at... 
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/u-s-jobless-claims-rise-slightly-a8f73cad
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Higher mortgage rates and concern over the broader economy are making for a weak start to the all-important spring housing market. Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/march-home-sales-drop.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 2% to 5485.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 26.47.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.328% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
We've seen signs of a slowing economy on many fronts recently. Today, it was New Home sales & the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index. Earlier this week it was the Richmond Fed and the S&P Global Composite PMI; both the ISM Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI indicated slowing growth last week. It’s not time to panic – markets don’t seem concerned.  Further, I’m not an economist so what do I know?
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +4 (4 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators) a Neutral indication - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – a bullish sign, but it has flipped a few times during this pullback.  Overall, though, indicators continue to improve.
 
Today, the S&P 500 popped above its upper trend line, a sign we have been waiting for with one caveat - charts depend on the scales used to draw the chart and another chart I have shows the Index at the top trendline, not above it.
 
I drew new, short-term trendlnes on the Summary of 50-Indicator Spread chart above. These lines form a symetrical-triangle or symetrical-wedge. Investopedia says, “A symmetrical triangle pattern in technical analysis is neither inherently bullish nor bearish. It represents a period of consolidation where prices are fluctuating within a converging trend line, according to Investopedia. The pattern itself doesn't predict the direction of the future price movement, but rather suggests a potential breakout either up or down.” The pattern may be resolving to the upside. Another close above the trendline will be a buy-signal for me, although I’ll only go back to 40% invested in stocks (maybe 50% at most). I would like to have a better buy-signal, but we can only take what we get. For now, Mr. Market seems to be listening to Mr. Trump and that is a scary thought.
 
The “Death Cross” remains on the S&P 500 – the 50-day moving average has dropped below its 200-dMA. Markets are already in bad shape so the “Death Cross” may not be important.
 
I have been expecting a retest of the prior low, but that seems less likely now. Indicators continue to improve and the chart looks better. Any further improvement in the 50-indicator spread will give a bullish signal. Now we’ll see if the S&P 500 can finish up again on Friday.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, in a wait-and-see mode.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.