GDP ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
GDP (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 on an import surge at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war. Gross domestic product, a sum of all the goods and services produced from January through March, fell at a 0.3% annualized pace...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5569.
-VIX rose about 2% to 24.7.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.168% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign.  Indicators continue to improve and are now clearly to the bull side.
 
What did I say recently? ”No recession in sight?” Guess that explains why I never got past Econ 101. GDP contracted and the S&P 500 finished higher. Bad news followed by an up-day is also a bullish sign.  Investors want to BUY.
 
I will be busy for the rest of the week – I’ll still post, but perhaps with shorter posts and published later I the day.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. I added XLK and SPY Monday.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.