“Political Suicide” By Michael Ramirez, Las Vegas Review-Journal at...
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-shutdown-politics-3471024/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=latest&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez_page_2&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Shutdown%20politics
Washington DC: “You will never find a more wretched hive
of scum and villainy.” – Obi-Wan
NO PLAN TO END SHUTDOWN (Daily Caller)
“One month into Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to spark a government shutdown, Democrats are reading from separate playbooks about how to end the standoff. Though more Democrats appear ready to end the weeks-long stalemate as soon as next week, few lawmakers appear to share the same victory scenario if the caucus relents in their hardball tactics. The Daily Caller News Foundation asked more than a dozen Senate Democrats to specify their demands to reopen the government but none gave the same answer.. “They’ve dug themselves in a hole and now they’re trying to figure out how to get out of it,” Republican Indiana Sen. Jim Banks told the DCNF. “I expect that after election day is over next week, then they can get serious about untangling their pretzel and reopening the government.” Story at...
‘Dug Themselves In A Hole’: Democrats Have No Clear Plan To End Schumer Shutdown
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my
career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan
debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in
the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my
45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead
Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
ANOTHER FED CUT NOT CERTAIN (Bloomberg)
“Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he wants to see more data before making a decision about how to vote at the central bank’s December meeting, but warned he’s more concerned about inflation than the labor market right now.
‘I’m not decided going into the December meeting,” Goolsbee said Monday on Yahoo Finance. ‘I am nervous about the inflation side of the ledger, where you’ve seen inflation above the target for four and a half years and it’s trending the wrong way.’” Story at...
Fed’s Goolsbee More Worried by Inflation Than Job Market
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report... "The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-48-7-october-2025-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302601422.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6852.
-VIX declined about 2% to 17.17.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.108% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +2 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down, a BEARSH sign.
Ruh-Roh... Monday there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being
correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of
Omens. Now we have seen 4 in a row. Looks like a cluster to me. The Fosback
New-high/New-low Logic Index uses a methodology similar to the Hindenburg Omen.
Fosback’s indicator is still neutral. Still, it may be time to worry a little.
Fosback’s indicator doesn’t signal very often although it called the top of the
Covid Pandemic Bear market to the day. There are other worrying bear signs.
The S&P 500 is again 12% above its 200-dMA. 10-15%
signals a trouble area for this indicator and 12% is a sell signal in my system.
The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE dropped below 50% indicating that
less than half of issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2 week –
another Bear sign.
At the most recent high on the S&P 500 last week,
4.1% of issue on the NYSE made new 52-week highs and other measures of breadth were ok. That suggests, but does not guarantee, that a
correction now (if one were to occur) would be a decline of 10% or less.
Both Fed Chair Powell and now Chicago Fed President Goolsbee
(see article above) are throwing cold water on a rate cut in December. That may
pressure markets some. With indicators declining, it appears that the S&P
500 wants to decline to its lower trend line.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any portfolio changes at this point.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My current invested position
is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“One month into Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s decision to spark a government shutdown, Democrats are reading from separate playbooks about how to end the standoff. Though more Democrats appear ready to end the weeks-long stalemate as soon as next week, few lawmakers appear to share the same victory scenario if the caucus relents in their hardball tactics. The Daily Caller News Foundation asked more than a dozen Senate Democrats to specify their demands to reopen the government but none gave the same answer.. “They’ve dug themselves in a hole and now they’re trying to figure out how to get out of it,” Republican Indiana Sen. Jim Banks told the DCNF. “I expect that after election day is over next week, then they can get serious about untangling their pretzel and reopening the government.” Story at...
‘Dug Themselves In A Hole’: Democrats Have No Clear Plan To End Schumer Shutdown
“Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he wants to see more data before making a decision about how to vote at the central bank’s December meeting, but warned he’s more concerned about inflation than the labor market right now.
‘I’m not decided going into the December meeting,” Goolsbee said Monday on Yahoo Finance. ‘I am nervous about the inflation side of the ledger, where you’ve seen inflation above the target for four and a half years and it’s trending the wrong way.’” Story at...
Fed’s Goolsbee More Worried by Inflation Than Job Market
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report... "The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-48-7-october-2025-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302601422.html
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 6852.
-VIX declined about 2% to 17.17.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.108% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +2 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down, a BEARSH sign.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
I’m neutral, leaning bearish, but I won’t make any portfolio changes at this point.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
