Jobs … Philly FED Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
5 HINDENBURG OMENS (McClellan Financial Publications)
“There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen…
…Some analysts are dismissive of the Hindenburg Omen because of how there have been several instances of failed signals.  Miekka [creator of the Hindenburg Omen] acknowledged that in the rules he crafted, something which these dismissive analysts fail to take into account.  He insisted that the signal was only valid for the next 30 trading days, and only on days when the McClellan Oscillator is below zero.  If the McClellan Oscillator goes above zero during that 30 trading day forward look, the signal remains valid but not in effect as long as the Oscillator is positive.  You can see the McClellan Oscillator value every day on our web site's Market Breadth Data page, https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/.
These recent signals should not be viewed as a guarantee of trouble.  They are like your check engine light, which could mean you are out of engine oil (really bad!!), or it could just be a loose gas cap.  Use this information in concert with other indicators of trend direction, and as a warning that something is going a little bit unusually in the market, which may be worth keeping in mind.” - Tom McClellan Editor, The McClellan Market Report. Commentary at…
My cmt: Yup. We logged them here at NTSM.
 
SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy added substantially more jobs than expected in September, according to a long-awaited report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in the month, up from the 4,000 jobs lost in August following a downward revision.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/jobs-report-september-2025.html
 
PHILLY FED INDEX (RTT News)
“After reporting a steep drop by its reading on regional manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released on report on Thursday showing the index rebounded in November but remained in negative territory. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity jumped to a negative 1.7 in November after plummeting to a negative 12.8 in October, although a negative reading still indicates contraction.” Story at… 
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3597319/philly-fed-index-rebounds-but-remains-negative-in-november.aspx
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 1.6% to 6539.
-VIX rose about 12% to 26.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.086% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 23 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -19 (19 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
I noted yesterday that I didn’t think Tuesday was the end of the market weakness, but I was still surprised to see the massive turnaround in the major indices today (Thursday). Jeepers - the Nasdaq was up 2.5% at 10:30 this morning; at the close it was down 2.2%, a swing of almost 5%.
 
Volumes were up today, suggesting more selling and the chart looked horrible, so the correction is likely to continue.
 
The S&P 500 has dropped 5.1% from its all-time high. The Index is 6.2% above its 200-dMA.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.