... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
“The Trump Administration is making another run at ending the war in Ukraine, and a lasting peace with honor would be a laudable achievement. But for three years the only peace on offer has been Ukraine’s surrender, and the latest American offer—really, an ultimatum—is merely another dressed-up version.” – The Editorial Board. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-issues-an-ultimatum-to-ukraine-aeb196da?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
 
NO STATUTORY AUTHORITY TO CANCEL APPROPRIATONS (Law and Crime)
“A federal judge on Friday barred the Trump administration from moving forward with a series of controversial spending cuts…
…"By now, the question presented in this case is a familiar one: may the Executive Branch undertake such actions in circumvention of the will of the Legislative Branch?" the order asks and then answers. "In recent months, this Court—along with other courts across the country—has concluded that it may not. That answer remains the same here."
Of note, the original litigation sought to block funding cuts at three agencies — and earlier versions of relief only applied to three agencies. Since filing an amended complaint, however, a fourth agency was named as a defendant. The Friday ruling covers all four agencies.
The lawsuit was largely based on violations of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), the federal statute governing the behavior of federal agencies. 
'No statutory authority to cancel appropriations': Judge rebukes Trump admin over funding cuts intended to 'dismantle' federal agencies
My cmt: No surprise there. That’s what I said months ago.
 
MAGA IS BASED OVERSEAS? (Extra.ie)
“Elon Musk’s latest update to X (previously Twitter) has introduced a new feature that directly shows an account’s country of origin on their profile page… While X users could previously see a person’s ‘location’ under their profile, this was based on what the user themselves had inputted. Now the location feature is based directly on the IP address associated with the account and cannot be manipulated. The newest feature has sparked fury from within the MAGA movement as massively popular pro-Trump X accounts have now been exposed as foreign actors. Many accounts that have promoted an ‘America First’ ideology are now known to be operating out of countries such as Thailand, Nigeria, and Eastern Europe.” Story at… 
MAGA implodes as Elon Musk’s latest update reveals major secret about pro-Trump X accounts
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.6% to 6705.
-VIX fell about 12% to 20.52.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.031% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 23 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -20 to -19 (19 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
Markets had another big up-day Monday. That makes us ask again, have we seen a bottom? Unfortunately, based on retests of lows, I have not seen convincing evidence of a bottom. That’s not unusual. Small corrections often don’t retest prior lows. In the absence of a retest, determining a bottom becomes very difficult.  We can look for big improvements in breadth or large high up-volume days. Those signals can take a while to develop.
 
We did see an oversold bottom on Tuesday and Thursday of last week. Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were oversold. Markets have acted like the Thursday low was the bottom since we have seen two strong up days since then. Oddly enough, market conditions were more positive on the Tuesday low so I have no data with which to call a bottom on Thursday when conditions were better on Tuesday. Is  the bottom in? I'd rather not guess, but sometime we have to.
 
Bullish market moves are normal for holiday weeks and the holiday may have overcome the market weakness.
 
The S&P 500 is 2.7% below its all-time high. The Index is 8.7% above its 200-dMA and 0.1% below its 50-dMA.
 
Wednesday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish, but waiting to see if I will see more clues.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of
 Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.