... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
NVIDIA RESULTS (CNBC)
“Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street expectations on Wednesday and provided stronger-than-expected sales guidance for the fourth quarter. Shares of the AI chipmaker jumped more than 6% in extended trading.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q3-2026.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6642.
-VIX declined about 4% to 23.66.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.139% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 22 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -16 to -19 (19 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
There was some late-day buying today and its always possible that it signaled that the pros were buying. I don’t think it was enough to suggest that the pros considered yesterday (Tuesday) the end of the recent market weakness; further, market internals were poor at today’s close.
 
The Lowry Research Buying-Pressure minus Selling-Pressure indicator is still headed down. That indicator called the bottom of the last big correction in October of 2022. It isn’t calling a bottom yet.
 
My conclusion is that the market weakness is not over yet. That could always be wrong. Nvidia reported strong earnings and rose about 6% today. Will that be enough to bring back the buyers? We’ll see.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish, but if I’m wrong, we’ll see strong buying tomorrow and a statistically significant up-day.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.