Consumer Confidence … Retail Sales … PPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

Have a happy Thanksgiving! 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
 

FED BEIGE BOOK (US News)
“U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, though employment was weaker in about half of the Federal Reserve's 12 districts and consumer spending declined, the U.S. central bank said on Wednesday, likely reinforcing concerns about labor market softening…Until last week it had been seen as a coin-toss decision amid deep divisions among Fed officials about whether more easing is needed to protect the job market or is too risky in light of inflation that remains above the central bank's 2% target. But the probability shifted sharply in favor of a rate cut after New York Fed President John Williams last week said he saw room to lower rates ‘in the near term.’" Story at…
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-11-26/us-economic-activity-little-changed-ahead-of-next-fed-meeting-beige-book-report-shows
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a seven-month low last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid economic uncertainty. The absence of labor market deterioration in the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Wednesday argued against the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again next month, with inflation still elevated, economists said.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-amid-steady-labor-market-conditions-2025-11-26/
 
DURABLE GOODS (RTTNews)
“The Commerce Department said durable goods orders climbed by 0.5 percent in September after spiking by an upwardly revised 3.0 percent in August…"The muted gain in September durable goods orders was anticipated, but the strength in core orders, a better gauge of future business spending, reinforces our optimism for solid growth in equipment investment in the next quarters," said Bernard Yaros, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3598896/u-s-durable-goods-orders-climb-0-5-in-september-more-than-expected.aspx
 
CHICAGO PMI (ForexFactory)
“MNI's Chicago Business Barometer Report came in dramatically worse than expected for November, printing 36.3 (the lowest since May 2024), well below expectations of 43.6 and the prior print of 43.8.” More details at…
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1372765-chicago-manufacturing-pmi-plunges-in-november
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 6813.
-VIX fell about 7% to 17.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.992% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025
Technology has been the loser during this pullback. It has room to run.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -7 to -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
Indicators are often slow to recover and I don’t usually follow the indicators for buy-signals.
 
Based on market action due to the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, I added to stocks today. I will add more Monday. My suspicion is that we’ll see some short-term reversal next week as the pros come back to work; I’ll wait till Monday to add more stocks.
 
The S&P 500 is 1.1% below its all-time high.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and will be adding stock holdings to return to a fully invested position.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 45% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.