Global Flash PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES – TRUMP TARIFFS (Veuer)
“On April 2, 2025, in a White House Rose Garden ceremony, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs—declaring the date "Liberation Day" and describing it as a declaration of "economic independence."  A 10% baseline tariff will take effect on April 5 for imports from all countries, with country-specific tariffs commencing on April 9. Trump's administration called these "reciprocal tariffs" aimed at correcting trade deficits. China responded with severe retaliatory tariffs: a 120% tariff on American hardwood products. This effectively eliminated what had been the largest export market for U.S. hardwood lumber…After 38 years of personal investment and commitment, Wilson Jones was forced to shut down. 
The family business spanning 141 years—dating back to 1882—ended not because of mismanagement or market decline, but due to sudden policy shifts that eliminated access to markets essential to survival. For Jones and his workers, "Liberation Day" meant economic devastation, not the liberation promised in the announcement.” Story at…
North Carolina Trump Voter Forced to Shut Family Lumber Mill and Lay Off Everyone Due to Tariffs
 
S&P GLOBAL FLASH US PMI (S&P Global)
“US business activity growth accelerated for a second successive month in November, according to early ‘flash’ PMI data, accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen so far this year. Confidence in the year ahead outlook also improved markedly, notably reflecting reduced worries over the political environment and hopes for increased policy support to business. The improvement was led by the service sector, accompanied by a robust rise in manufacturing output.” Report at…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 6603.
-VIX fell about 11% to 23.52.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.067% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 22 gave Bear-signs and 2 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -19 to -20 (20 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
The S&P500 was down 1.6% Thursday, so a rebound Friday of about half that amount would be normal.  The Index was up 1% today, slightly more than we might expect, but still within reason. Today’s move higher was close to a level that would suggest a down-day Monday.
 
When the number of bullish indicators in my ensemble falls to extremely low levels it is a concerning sign. There are now only 2 bullish indicators. One is the Utility/S&P 500 spread.  This indicator is based on the fact that traders will buy utilities during market disruptions. The other bullish indicator is the 100-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. This is a long-term breadth indicator and it is nearly giving a bear signal.  
 
So far, I haven’t seen many signs that this pullback is ending. The indications we saw Tuesday have been overcome by market action. Since I could always be wrong, we might guess that there is a 20% chance that the correction is over. We don’t always get good signals on small corrections.
 
The S&P 500 is 4.2% from its all-time high. The Index is 7.1% above its 200-dMA. The XLK ETF (Technology Select Sector) is down 10%.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of
 Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.