Consumer Confidence … Retail Sales … PPI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“US retail sales slowed in September as investors got the first official glimpse of consumer spending in two months…Headline retail sales climbed 0.2% in September, below economists' expectations of a 0.4% month-over-month increase.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-retail-sales-rose-less-than-forecast-in-september-as-key-data-returns-after-shutdown-delays-133631795.html
 
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index, a measure of what producers get for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate…excluding food and energy, the index rose just 0.1%...” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/core-wholesale-prices-rose-less-than-expected-in-september-retail-sales-gain.html
My cmt: October PPI will not be available. November CPI is expected 18 December.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “

Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 6766.
-VIX fell about 10% to 18.56.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.000% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -19 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) smooths daily fluctuations; it continued down, a BEARSH sign.
 
I mentioned my confusion regarding the recent bounce in stocks since I had not seen data that would support an end to the market weakness. I should have looked at Fed speak rather than data. Recent comments by Fed officials have made it clear that a rate reduction in December is likely, The CME Fed Watch tool now has an 83% chance of a rate cut at the 10 December Fed meeting. It was less than 50% just a few days ago.
 
Fed action will move the markets and given the reaction of the interest sensitive Russel 2000, we can conclude that the market weakness is likely over and the Fed get’s the credit.
 
I’ll get back to a fully invested position in the next day or two.
 
The S&P 500 is 1.8% below its all-time high. The Index is 9.7% above its 200-dMA and 0.7% above its 50-dMA. The “above its 50-dMA” is the important stat.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and will be adding stock holdings to return to a fully invested position.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Friday, 7 November, my invested position is about 40% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.