The wife left a note on
the fridge.........
"It's not working!! I can't take it anymore, I've gone to stay at my moms!"
I opened the fridge, the light came on and the beer was cold.........
Who knows what the hell she was talking about!
"It's not working!! I can't take it anymore, I've gone to stay at my moms!"
I opened the fridge, the light came on and the beer was cold.........
Who knows what the hell she was talking about!
Monday the S&P 500 finished essentially unchanged at 1385. The VIX rose about 8% to 18.03 today. That’s a big jump in the VIX for an unchanged S&P 500. That could mean a down day tomorrow.
MINYANVILLE: “One thing overlooked in Friday’s weak Q2 GDP report was that YOY nominal GDP grew at 3.9% which is in line with the post-recession recovery average. “
Full story (covers mostly QE3 ) at: http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/gdp-federal-reserve-the-fed-fed/7/30/2012/id/42804#ixzz227O2KZ1E
FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE
Here’s an interesting take
on US business activity from the Federal Reserve. The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions
Index “…is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency.”
Note: We construct the ADS
Index using the latest data available as of July 27, 2012. This includes (1)
initial jobless claims through the week ending July 21, 2012,
(2) payroll employment
through June 2012, (3) industrial production through June 2012, (4) real
personal income through May 2012, (5) real manufacturing and trade sales through
April 2012, and (6) real GDP through the second quarter of 2012. Gray shading
indicates NBER-designated recessions. The limits used on the y axis reflect the
minimum and maximum values of the index over its entire history. From:http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/
By this measure, business
activity doesn’t look bad as of last week. Will those
predicting recession be wrong again? John
Hussman, PhD (in economics) said again that another recession is already
underway… (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120730.htm).
Rather than guess I will just follow my indicators in the NTSM analysis.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis was again BUY at the close on Monday. Price, Volume and VIX indicators
are all positive on the market.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6 July, I moved back
into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500 1352. I now have a 50% stock allocation
overall. For my age, that is what most
advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I am underweight my usual aggressive
allocation for stocks because there’s a lot of risk now.
