Friday, July 20, 2012

Europe: Back, Bigger and Badder than Ever


FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) Europe stocks fall; Spain plunges on debt worries:
“European stocks posted broad-based losses Friday, with Spanish equities plunging as government bond yields soared on renewed fears the country could be forced to seek a full-fledged sovereign bailout due to its debt burden… “The news out of Spain prompted investors to focus their attention away from the QE3-or-no-QE3 argument for some good old risk-off trading,” said Neal Gilbert, strategist at GFT…”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-markets-struggle-to-maintain-momentum-2012-07-20

MARKET                                                                                           
Friday the S&P 500 finished down 1% to 1363.  The VIX was up 5% to 16.27.

The S&P 500 is reasonably close to its lower trend line so maybe I’ll get another chance on Monday to take a long trading position.  I’ve been too busy with visitors to do any trading recently.  I still think we go up from here just based on the NTSM indicators which have remained BUY 9-of the last 11-trading days.  Market internals look good too.  I am not super optimistic though; with so much bad news this market could turn quickly.  The S&P is only up about 1% over the last 11-trading days so that’s not very encouraging either.

NTSM
The NTSM analysis remains BUY Friday at the close.

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6 July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500 1352.  I now have a 50% stock allocation.  I am underweight my usual aggressive allocation for stock because there’s a lot of risk now.