FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK
MarketWatch - More Fed districts report slowdown
“The so-called Beige Book, which covered the economy between June and early
July, was less enthusiastic than the “moderate” assessment of the last Beige
Book. And now three regions, up from one, reported slowing growth.”http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-fed-districts-report-slowdown-beige-book-2012-07-18
The above is more evidence
of economic slowdown, but the Fed says it will do more if needed. Even though in a recent speech Bernanke said
that the Fed actions seem to be having less effect on the economy (see 7 June Blog,
http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=606602026868381885#editor/target=post;postID=1477785570741546110),
investors are buoyed by Uncle Ben’s promise to fix future problems. Sorry, I don’t believe it. On the other hand, the market does believe it,
and that’s all that matters. That’s why
the NTSM system switched back to buy. The market is never wrong.
MARKET
Wednesday
the S&P 500 finished up 2/3% to 1373.
The VIX fell 2% to 16.16.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis is BUY Wednesday
at the close.
As I have been suggesting,
stock market indicators have been looking good and they continue to do so.
The NTSM system doesn’t
forecast the future, it merely analyses the S&P 500 to see if it is at a
Top or Bottom. Therefore; I can’t use it
to predict how much higher the market will go.
I can guess though. Let’s guess
we get to the old,recent-high of 1420 (round numbers).
We’ll see.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352. I now have a 50% stock
allocation. I am underweight my usual aggressive
allocation for stock because there’s a lot of risk now.
