JOBLESS CLAIMS
(MarketWatch) — “First-time
filings for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in more
than four years, but the decline likely stemmed from fewer auto-sector layoffs
than normal and other onetime factors that could soon be reversed:
Jobless claims sank 26,000
to a seasonally adjusted 350,000 in the week ended July 7, the Labor Department
said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected they would fall
to 365,000 from an upwardly revised 376,000 in the prior week…In all, the
weekly claims suggests that while some of the recent weakness in employment
growth is seasonal, in the absence of a solid pick-up in hiring, the trend in
jobless claims suggests that we will likely see another weak employment print
in July while the underlying pace of employment growth remains soft,” said
Bricklin Dwyer of BNP Paribas in a note to clients.”
I don’t put much faith in
employment data. It tends to be a
lagging indicator.
MARKET
Thursday the S&P 500
finished down 1/2 % to 1335. The VIX rose
2% to 18.33.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis is HOLD,
Thursday at the close. The VIX indicator
is a whisker away from a buy recommendation and it it were positive, it would trip the overall
NTSM analysis to buy..
It may seem curious to be
investing in the market now with a lot of bad news out there. I feel that way; but the market says
otherwise. Breadth has been improving
since the 4 June low of 1278. There have
been many more new-Highs vs. New-lows.
This is my most promising new indicator (not yet in the NTSM system) and
it flashed buy a day or two past the 4 June low. I also watch the “smart
money”. Although “smart money” is not in
the NTSM system either, it tracks the market price-action in the last hour of
trading. That’s when the pros take
positions. It too has been moving up as
traders buy late in the day and that trend began before the 1278 bottom. Google “Smart money Indicator” if you are
curious.
Finally, the NTSM
indicators of Price, Volume and VIX have all been positive over the past
5-days, though not all at the same time.
As odd as it may seem, I think the market will go up from here. My guess is that there won’t be huge gains,
but 10% from here is not unreasonable.
It could turn quickly on bad news so I’ll be careful.
Chart wise, the S&P
500 is still in an uptrend, but that may change if it drops much further. If it does, I’ll have to reevaluate.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal
Friday, 6 July, I moved back into the market on 9 July and I now have a 50%
stock allocation. I am underweight my
usual allocation for stock because there’s a lot of risk now.
