“Private-sector employment increased by 176,000 from May to June on a
seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment
Report released today. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic
Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC,
is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm
private employment each month….Today‟s estimate, if reinforced by a comparable
reading on employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow, likely will
ease concerns that the economy is heading into a downturn.”
ISM NUMBERS
US service sector slows to
2-1/2-yr low in June-ISM (Reuters) – “The pace of growth in the U.S. services
sector slowed in June to its lowest level since January 2010 as new orders
waned, though employment improved, an industry report showed on Thursday…The
Institute for Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.1 from 53.7
in May, shy of economists' forecasts for 53.0, according to a Reuters survey. A
reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.” Full story…
DISCUSSION BOARDS: Posted
by drtkw…
“The last
three up trends…lasted (18 months, 12 months, 6 months). The banksters are
losing control. Maybe this "up trend" is already over before it began.
Lol!”
Perhaps there is some
truth there, but I am not making a prediction.
I could easily get a buy signal any day.
As far as my analysis, the NTSM model remains neutral, but leaning towards the buy side. Since my system is based on closing numbers, even if I do get a buy signal tomorrow, I couldn’t act on it till Monday. Monday may be interesting since the pros all will be back to work.
It is curious that the ISM
Purchasing manager’s Index showed contraction on Monday, but the Commerce
Department reported factory orders rising on Tuesday. I can’t explain that.
MARKET
Thursday, the S&P 500
was down 1/2% to 1368. The VIX rose 5%. Do the options boys know something we don’t?
NTSM
The NTSM analysis is HOLD
again Thursday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain out of the
market…
I reduced my stock
holdings to 30% (0% in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal
on 9 May 2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the
right side of this page). I cut my stock
position to 15% on 17 May in order to maintain a 10% gain in a trading/longer-term
position I had in the QQQ.
