YAHOO FINANCE - BREAKOUT
“… earnings…have been seen
72% of companies beating consensus, the sales side has been a huge
disappointment…on the revenue side, we've seen a very weak earnings
season," says John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet. "Only
42% of companies have beat revenue estimates so far, well below an average of
60% from the last four years. And if this trend continues through the balance
of the season," Butters explains…"it will mark the worst quarter for
positive sales surprises in over three years."…“The second trend he's
monitoring is the ratio of negative-to-positive pre-announcements, which is
running about three-to-one, up from a longer-term average of two-to-one. And
when companies speak or give guidance, analysts react.” Full story at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/q2-earnings-season-revenue-stupid-120429818.html
MARKET
Tuesday
the S&P 500 finished 0.4% to 1379. The
VIX rose 5% to 18.93 today.
Over
the last month only 35% of the trading days have been up. Sometimes that sort of negative trend
actually precedes a rally so we’ll see what tomorrow (Wednesday) brings.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis was again BUY at the close on Tuesday.
The
volume indicator switched to neutral.
VIX and Price indicators are still positive. Sentiment is 58% Bulls at today’s close. That’s elevated but still a neutral reading
and I think it gives the market some room to keep moving up.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352. I now have a 50% stock allocation
overall. For my age, that is what most
advisors recommend, however, I am normally much more aggressive. I am underweight my usual aggressive
allocation for stocks because there’s a lot of risk now.
